Trying to make up for what was his disastrous Noble Causeway prediction in 2005, The Dawg is brimming with confidence now that the 132nd running of the Kentucky Derby is just around the corner.
The annual Run for the Roses in Louisville, Ky., is Saturday at Churchill Downs, where 20 colts will attempt to win the lion?s share of the $2 million purse … as well as eternal fame.
Just to refresh your collective memories, The Dawg is Lake County?s fearless four-legged pony prognosticator, whose picks over the years have ranged from pretty darn good to Noble Causeway, who ran a stout 14th a year ago. Noble Causeway was perhaps The Dawg?s worst pick of a generation, but since every Dawg has his day, good and bad, I?ll give him the collective benefit of the doubt.
The Dawg sees a lot of speed horses ready to set the early pace on the 1 ?-mile dirt track this year, but he?s not woofing it up over any of them. ?They?ll burn out before the finish line is anywhere in sight,? the Dawg growled. ?Half of them will stop for a drink about six furlongs in.?
Those frontrunners include Keyed Entry (pole position three), Sinister Minister (four) — not owned by Pat Robertson — Blue Grass Cat (13), who The Dawg can?t stand by virtue of the name, Lawyer Ron (17), and Brother Derek (18).
The closers, horses who have the ability to hang the whole way and close at the end, are Jazil (1), Steppenwolfer (2), Point Determined (5), Barbaro (8), AP Warrior (10), and Cause To Believe (16), a Northern California horse that will be ridden by jockey Russell Baze.
The Dawg Pound — the Dawg?s flea-bitten cohorts who can be found holed up at any legal wagering facility, and occasionally illegal — are split over the horse flesh that is trying to hoof it toward the most storied horse racing title known to man or thoroughbred.
And when I say split, I mean they all like different horses and there?s no consensus to be found, unless of course it?s that Noble Causeway really was a horrible pick.
?Why do you keep bugging me about that?,? The Dawg snorted. ?It?s not like it was a total loss with that pick.?
Indeed, not. Following the 2005 Derby, The Dawg ponied up close to $30 to buy Noble Causeway, who he now rides between Lake County and the Santa Rosa Fairgrounds wagering facility each week.
?People used to laugh at me, but I?m not paying $3.35 for a gallon of gas, either,? The Dawg said.
But enough is enough for Noble Causeway, whose previous owner?s ancestors also were majority shareholders in the White Star Line, whose prized entry, Titanic, didn?t fare nearly as well as Noble Causeway.
It?s 2006, and it?s a new year, with new fire hydrants awaiting The Dawg and the The Dawg Pound brethren.
The Dawg likes two horses in the field quite a bit, in fact the thought of either one has him rolling around on his back, his little legs a kickin?. The Dawg?s pick for Saturday?s main event, which should roll out of the gates about 3:05 p.m. our time, is … drum roll please, Barbaro.
?He?ll close the final eighth of a mile to scoop up all that loot,? The Dawg said.
The Dawg also has a long-shot horse, AP Warrior, who may have to change his name if he ever moves to Lake County.
?I don?t see any clear favorites this year,? said The Dawg, who wouldn?t reveal how many milkbones he will be wagering on the big race and he even seemed offended I would ask considering betting protocol among The Dawg-pounders, who keep their friends close and their enemies closer (yep, Godfather line, but it applies). ?We never say how much we bet and we never tell the truth about how much we win or lose, anyway,? The Dawg reminded me.
While The Dawg is scratching Barbaro?s way, here?s how the other members of The Dawg Pound are sizing up the race. Yep, they really exist, but their names are being kept a secret until the presidential pardons come out in a couple of years.
— The Hazer likes Sinister Minister.
— Mr. C (as in C note) thinks Lawyer Ron has the proper legal standing to win it all.
— Matt the Mole will be burrowing in Brother Derek?s paddock.
— Harness Jim is wagering all the money he could slip out of the sleeping Dawg?s pockets on Jazil.
There could be some rain on race day, which could affect the outcome. If it?s a muddy track, The Dawg will be yowling something fierce.
?I don?t want to see anything resembling a raindrop for the next five or six years, not after this alleged spring,? The Dawg said, all the lovability drained right out of him. ?If it pours in Kentucky, I?m sure I?ll get blamed for that, but listen up.
?If it?s a muddy track, all bets are off … ?
