I”ve enjoyed analyzing the history of the Academy Awards and making annual nomination predictions since high school. Generally, no matter how the awards themselves play out, looking at a list of nominees, and then watching those films, can be a great way of improving one”s film knowledge.
The general formula for developing an Oscar prediction list is consistent year-to-year, though obviously the films and performances change.
It is imperative to look at the nominee lists for the different year-end awards (Screen Actors Guild Award, British Academy Film Awards, Golden Globes, etc) because Oscar nominees are the last to be announced and commonalities almost always exist.
Another key aspect is to look at recent historical trends of Oscar nominations, of which many exist – one example with acting nods being that, in a given year, there is usually a balance between first-time nominees and previous nominees or winners.
I will divulge that I have not seen every movie released in 2010 nor analyzed every performance, but that almost doesn”t matter because the 2010/11 award-season trends and recent Oscar tendencies are the best tools to gauge who the voters will nominate.
And there”s never been a year when the film or performance I thought to be the best in a given category was not nominated for an Oscar.
That being said, here”s my prediction list for the six major categories:
Best Picture:
“127 Hours”
“Black Swan”
“Blue Valentine”
“The Fighter”
“Inception”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“The King”s Speech”
“The Social Network”
“Toy Story 3”
“True Grit”
Best Director:
Darren Aronofsky – “Black Swan”
Danny Boyle – “127 Hours”
David Fincher – “The Social Network”
Tom Hooper – “The King”s Speech”
Christopher Nolan -“Inception”
Best Actor:
Jeff Bridges – “True Grit”
Robert Duvall – “Get Low”
Jesse Eisenberg – “The Social Network”
Colin Firth – “The King”s Speech”
James Franco – “127 Hours”
Best Actress:
Annette Bening – “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman – “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence -“Winter”s Bone”
Natalie Portman – “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams – “Blue Valentine”
Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale – “The Fighter”
Andrew Garfield – “The Social Network”
Jeremy Renner – “The Town”
Mark Ruffalo – “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush – “The King”s Speech”
Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams – “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter – “The King”s Speech”
Mila Kunis – “Black Swan”
Melissa Leo – “The Fighter”
Julianne Moore – “The Kids Are All Right”
My overall percentage has hovered around 80 percent in the seven years I”ve been recording predictions. The nominees for the 83rd Academy Awards will be announced Tuesday at 5:30 a.m. Winners will be announced Feb. 27.
Jeremy Walsh is a staff reporter for Lake County Publishing. He can be reached at 263-5636 ext. 37 or jwalsh@record-bee.com.
