The final tennis Grand Slam of the year, the U.S. Open, begins play Monday and the dominating storyline for the tournament, like every other this season, is Novak Djokovic.
The 24-year-old Serbian has had an unbelievable 2011, posting a 57-2 match record en route to nine singles titles (including the Australian Open and Wimbledon). But he did retire in last week”s Western & Southern Open final in Cincinnati because of a shoulder injury, which has some people questioning whether he can win in New York.
The fact is, minor injury or not, Djokovic is the clear favorite to win the men”s singles title: the man”s lost just two matches all season, plus he”s ranked No. 1 in the world and was a U.S. Open finalist last year.
Djokovic will feel more pressure than anyone during the two-week event, and not just because he”s the favorite. Djokovic must win the U.S. Open for his 2011 season to be considered among the all-time great seasons.
Yes he”s won an absurd number of matches and titles, but historically, greatness is measured by championships. If Djokovic fails to win the U.S. Open and earn a third Slam in 2011, his dominant season turns into a disappointment.
Consider that his two greatest contemporaries both won three Slams in one year despite having overall records nowhere near as good as Djokovic”s 2011 mark (Rafael Nadal last year and Roger Federer in 2004, 2006 and 2007).
So the heat”s on Djokovic to get it done the next two weeks. Looking at his incredible run this year, there”s a good chance he will, but the shoulder injury and added pressure have opened the door for other contenders.
Nadal, the defending champion and world No. 2, appears to be the best challenger. He won three Slams last year and the 2011 French Open, but the knock on Nadal”s season has been shrinking against Djokovic, who is a perfect 5-0 against the Spaniard in 2011.
Federer could have a shot, though he”s had a disappointing 2011. The world No. 3 recently turned 30 and probably realizes time is running out. If he doesn”t win the U.S. Open, it will be the first season since 2002 that Federer didn”t win a Grand Slam.
Andy Murray is the non-champion best positioned to win his first career Slam. Murray”s problem has been performing on the Grand Slam stage, but his 2011 results should give him renewed confidence (making all three previous Slam semifinals and beating Djokovic last week).
The dark horse (and only American man with a shot) is Mardy Fish. Though his best Slam result has been the quarterfinals, Fish has won one title and earned two runner-up finishes since mid-July. Still, no American man has won a Slam since Andy Roddick at the 2003 U.S. Open.
On the women”s side, the draw is even more wide open because an abdominal injury has forced two-time defending champion Kim Clijsters to withdraw.
As a result, Maria Sharapova slides into the favorite position. The Russian has had a solid 2011, winning two singles titles (including last week in Cincinnati) and making deep runs in two Slams (the semis in France and the Wimbledon final). She also has a history of success in New York, winning the 2006 U.S. Open.
Naming a second favorite is a little tougher.
Looking strictly at 2011 play, China”s Li Na appears to that player. She had an amazing first half of the season, reaching the final in Australia and winning the French Open, but her play has dropped off a bit lately.
If very recent play and career success were considered more important factors, then Serena Williams would be the second favorite.
She won two regular season events this summer and has 13 career Slam singles titles, but 2011 has been a challenge because of complications from a foot injury. She hasn”t won a major tournament in more than a year and might not be back in good enough playing shape to survive the two-week event.
A couple of other contenders to consider are Caroline Wozniacki and Samantha Stosur.
Wozniacki is the world No. 1 and has won five tournaments this year but poor Grand Slam performances have haunted her young career. Because of the storylines with Sharapova and Williams, Wozniacki could be flying under the radar, which might helpful.
Stosur is more of a dark horse. Hard court isn”t her best surface but she does have strong hard-court skills. She should draw confidence from a decent 2011 season and improve on her 2010 U.S. Open quarterfinal run.
Jeremy Walsh is a staff reporter for Lake County Publishing. He can be reached at 263-5636 ext. 37 or jwalsh@record-bee.com.
