Just when it seemed Roger Federer was nose-diving into the twilight of his career, the Swiss Master gave fans reason to look forward to a strong 2012 after winning three tournaments this November.
By all accounts, Federer had a down year in 2011: he didn”t win a Grand Slam for the first time since 2002, reached only one Slam final, dropped to No. 4 in the world at one point and earned only one title coming into last month.
On top of all that, he lost some big-time matches by blowing normally insurmountable leads.
In the Wimbledon quarterfinals, Federer had a two-set lead on Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga but proceeded to lose 6-4 in each of the final three sets for an incomprehensible collapse.
No doubt that match lingered in the back of his mind as he held a two-sets-to-none lead on Novak Djokovic in the U.S. Open semifinals.
Suddenly recent history started to repeat itself and Federer dropped the third and fourth sets.
But the greatest player of his generation (and arguably all time) regained control and actually served for the match. Then Djokovic ripped one of the most memorable return-winners in U.S. Open history to save the first match point, Federer clipped the tape to lose the second and the Serbian soon broke serve en route to a 7-5 fifth-set victory.
The New York debacle seemed a fitting end to Federer”s 2011.
The 30-year-old reportedly took some time off of to regroup and refocus.
He returned to tournament play in his native Switzerland and won the first of three consecutive hard-court, indoor titles – a run he continued Sunday with a victory over Tsonga at the ATP World Tour Finals in London.
Now Federer finds himself playing some of his best tennis since winning the 2010 Australian Open (his last Grand Slam title), but the fact remains 2011, on the whole, was his worst season in nearly a decade.
On the other hand, his two biggest rivals had great results.
Djokovic put together an incredible season.
The current No. 1 player has a 70-6 match-record to date, earned three Grand Slams and 10 tournament titles, and at one point had won 41 matches in a row (a streak ended by Federer in the French Open semis).
However, the Serbian dropped off after his U.S. Open victory, losing three matches and withdrawing from a fourth in his last three tournaments.
World No. 2 Rafael Nadal had a good 2011, winning the French Open and appearing in two other Slam finals, but he too faltered this fall, including a 6-3, 6-0 drubbing by Federer in London.
With the top two players falling off late this year, the guys below Federer will go into 2012 hungrier than ever. They smell blood coming from the top and see their chance to strike.
But those players should keep in mind that Federer most likely notices the same scent and realizes it could be time to pounce again.
At 30, Federer cannot be as dominant as he was in the mid-2000s (like in 2006 when he went 92-5 with 12 titles and three Slams), but he can certainly compete at a high level. He proved that last month.
He probably also has a chip on his shoulder after the troubles he had closing out matches in the last two Slams.
Of course he”ll win tournaments the next three years (assuming he plays that long and avoids a personal-life catastrophe), but an older Federer has to recognize his Grand-Slam window is closing.
Recently, not many men”s singles players have won Slams after turning 30. Andre Agassi is the only man this century to win more than one major title at or beyond Federer”s current age.
Still, tennis fans never saw a man more dominant in his 20s than Federer, so it”s certainly conceivable Club Fed could perform better than most male players do in their 30s.
If he stays healthy the rest of this year, look for Federer to come out hot in 2012 and make a strong showing at the Australian Open. And if he doesn”t pull one out in Melbourne, he”ll definitely get at least one in Paris, London or New York.
The best tennis player of the 21st century probably has three years left, at most. So enjoy them while they last and expect Federer to improve on his record of 16 Grand Slam titles.
Though he has now entered his 30s, 20 still isn”t that far away.
