As improbable as it would have sounded last summer, it”s now undeniable: the San Francisco 49ers host the NFC Championship Game Sunday afternoon.
It has been a long-awaited return to relevance for San Francisco.
Once a team known for success (going 5-0 in Super Bowls from 1981 to 1994), the 49ers have posed little threat the past 15 years.
Before this season, San Francisco”s last playoff berth came in 2002 and its last trip to the NFC Championship Game dated back to 1997, a loss to the Green Bay Packers.
After searching aimlessly for nearly a decade, the 49ers finally struck gold again in 2011 after hiring Jim Harbaugh as head coach.
They surprised many by running away with the NFC West crown en route to a 13-3 regular season. But even more shocking was their win last weekend, outgunning the New Orleans Saints” powerhouse offense.
Now San Francisco finds itself in the NFC title game, just one win away from the promise land.
Lining up against the 49ers will be the New York Giants, who barely qualified for the playoffs with a Week 17 win but have been dominant in two postseason victories.
The teams actually played during the regular season in November, a game the Bay Area squad won 27-20.
The Giants outgained the 49ers in passing and rushing yards but fell victim to two key interceptions thrown by Eli Manning.
In a lot of ways, the 49ers snuck out of the Week 10 game with a win, especially after going just 3-for-11 on third down and settling for three short David Akers field goals on important drives.
They won”t have the same luxury Sunday.
The Giants” defense has only given up 20 points this postseason while the offense has averaged better than 25 per game. In its most impressive win, New York forced four turnovers and four sacks against the top-seeded Packers.
The 49ers will obviously be fighting a tough foe on the field, but they”ll also be battling history a little bit. San Francisco is only 5-7 in NFC Championship Games in the Super Bowl era.
Still, the 49ers have a real good chance to earn a coveted sixth conference title, as long as they play within themselves and don”t try to forcibly create opportunities.
San Francisco needs to hold true to its run-first mentality. The Giants gave up 147 rushing yards at Green Bay, which had only an average ground attack this season.
Creating turnovers will be another key.
The 49ers led the NFL in turnover differential during the regular season and took the ball away from New Orleans five times last weekend. On the other hand, the Giants ranked sixth in the NFL, forced no turnovers in its wild card game but got four against the Packers.
San Francisco will have to hang onto the ball because New York capitalized on three fumbles and almost a dozen dropped passes by Green Bay.
The offense must take advantage of scoring opportunities. Red-zone efficiency dogged the 49ers all season, and they only went 2-for-4 against the Saints. A barrage of field goals won”t cut it against the Giants.
The defense will have to control New York”s aerial attack, which scorched Green Bay.
Of course San Francisco won despite yielding more than 400 passing yards to New Orleans, but the secondary can”t bank on getting away with that again. An interception or two certainly would help.
Prediction: San Francisco earns a hard-fought 27-23 win.
It may well be the 49ers” slight edge on defense that propels them to victory — though the decided advantage on special teams could be a factor too.
And San Francisco will get a great prize for the unexpected franchise rebirth: most likely a Super Bowl XLVI matchup against the hungry New England Patriots.
