Low-grossing films and mediocre performances will highlight the bill Sunday during the 84th annual Academy Awards ceremony.
For the first time since the Oscars reverted back to allowing more than five Best Picture nominees in 2010, none of the movies nominated cracked the top 10 highest-grossing list.
“The Help” has earned the most money to date, reeling in just more than $200 million.
One problem was most of the box-office successes were not Oscar material.
Nine of the 10 highest grossing films of 2011 worldwide were sequels from familiar series such as “Harry Potter,” “Transformers,” “Twilight” and “Kung Fu Panda” – the 10th movie was “The Smurfs,” which was based on a children”s television cartoon.
Big-budget, commercial sequels generally don”t end up in the Best Picture conversation.
Of course, a movie doesn”t have to make hundreds of millions of dollars to be entertaining, brilliant or powerful, but having a best-of-the-year catalog devoid of financially dominant films is disconcerting.
Obviously, part of the onus is on the production studios, which used to release movies annually that made money and were critically acclaimed.
Oscar voters get some of the blame too.
At least four of the Best Picture nominees shouldn”t have made the list.
“Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close,” “Hugo,” “The Tree of Life” and “War Horse” were all at or below average, and should not have made the cut ahead of “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.”
The trend continued throughout the six major categories.
People like Terrence Malick (“The Tree of Life”), Jonah Hill (“Moneyball”) and Melissa McCarthy (“Bridesmaids”) were a few of the nominees who benefited from a lackluster film year.
Then again, two other recent bridesmaids (and Hollywood legends) could gain from the competitive races created by having average contenders.
Woody Allen and Meryl Streep have five wins and 40 nominations between them, but they have missed on their previous 10 and 12 chances, respectively – Allen last won for writing 1986”s “Hannah and Her Sisters” and Streep for Best Actress for 1982”s “Sophie”s Choice.”
Allen likely won”t win Best Director for “Midnight in Paris” but could earn his third Best Original Screenplay award.
Streep has a good chance to claim Best Actress, which promises to be a hard-fought category since three nominees split the other major awards.
Best Director and Best Actress are just some of the thrilling races to watch Sunday.
And here”s how I see the results playing out:
Best Supporting Actress:
Octavia Spencer (“The Help”) has the contest sewn up, having already captured the Golden Globe, British Academy Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) and Screen Actors Guild (SAG) awards.
She clearly gave the best performance of any nominee, but it was far from an all-time supporting role.
Best Supporting Actor:
Christopher Plummer waited nearly 50 years for his first Oscar nomination (for 2009”s “The Last Station”). It took only another two for his second nomination and a surefire first win.
He has cleaned up this award season for “Beginners” with the type of subtle backup performance Oscar voters love. Plus, they enjoy rewarding older actors.
Best Actress:
For the first time since the close contest between Hilary Swank and Annette Bening at the 2000 Oscars, the Best Actress category seems up in the air going into the ceremony.
Streep (“The Iron Lady”), Viola Davis (“The Help”) and Michelle Williams (“My Week With Marilyn”) have each won major awards this season, and though critics lauded the two younger women, this should be Streep”s year.
Voters love well-known performers playing historical figures, and Streep as Margaret Thatcher fits the bill perfectly. They”ll finally give her that third statue, in part because they have to wonder how much longer she”ll keep acting at such a high level.
Best Actor:
Jean Dujardin gave the most wide-ranging performance of the year, playing the lead in “The Artist.” The Frenchman won most of the other awards and the Oscar should be his as well.
The only thing that might hurt Dujardin is the fact “The Artist” falls into a niche genre, so George Clooney (from the more mainstream “The Descendants”) could provide a scare. Still, it”s been almost a decade since the last Best Actor upset. Dujardin should win.
Best Director:
Strictly judging the names, this category appears close, with previous winners Allen and Martin Scorsese (“Hugo”) and previous nominees Malick and Alexander Payne (“The Descendants”) in the race.
But newcomer Michel Hazanavicius has two things on his side: He directed the year”s best movie and, more importantly, he won the Directors Guild of America (DGA) award.
“The Artist” featured many aspects of silent films, requiring specific and extraordinary directing skills. Because he earned the DGA, Hazanavicius also has the numbers on his side – since 1950, all but six DGA winners went on to win the Oscar.
Best Picture:
“The Artist” might not have the fanfare of previous winners but it”s just as deserving.
Set in Hollywood during the shift from silent films to talkies, “The Artist” is riveting, entertaining and engaging – and almost as good as “Singin” in the Rain,” the best movie ever made about that era.
It dominated most other award shows, partly because it”s a great film and partly because the only things critics like more than historical movies are historical movies about the movie business.
Look for “The Artist” to become the first Best Picture winner primarily shot in black and white since “Schindler”s List.”
Jeremy Walsh is a staff reporter for Lake County Publishing. He can be reached at 263-5636, ext. 37 or jwalsh@record-bee.com. Follow him on Twitter, @JeremyDWalsh.
