This was a hard one to see coming.
A little more than a month ago, the San Jose Sharks looked ready to surge. They had won their first two games after the All-Star break by a combined 11-2 and sat atop the Pacific Division at 29-14-6.
Then the team traveled to Phoenix for a matchup against the rival Coyotes Feb. 4. The Sharks struggled in the desert en route to a 5-3 loss, which marked the beginning of a devastating stretch that must”ve blindsided them like a harpoon to the gut.
San Jose went on to split two home games before heading out on a nine-game road trip. The away waters brought little relief for the Sharks, who posted a meager 2-6-1 record.
A four-game homestand followed, which San Jose finished at 1-2-1 after a shootout loss Tuesday to the lowly Edmonton Oilers.
Now the Sharks find themselves in eighth place in the Western Conference after going 4-10-2 in their last 16 games.
They”ve dropped from third in the West to the cusp of missing the playoffs. They”re only three points out of 12th place in the crowded conference – but to be fair, they”re as many away from tying the No. 3-seed.
With about a month left in the regular season, San Jose has to right itself, especially with 11 games remaining against Pacific foes (starting tonight in Dallas against the first-place Stars).
To do so, the Sharks must learn from the host of mistakes made since Feb. 4.
It”s difficult to hone in on one particular problem because the statistics show the Sharks have lost many different ways.
During the stretch, they got shut out twice but also lost five games in which they scored three or more goals. And three times they were defeated by margins of three or more.
In total, opponents outscored San Jose by more than a dozen goals.
But it wasn”t always for a lack of trying. The Sharks lost two games despite out-shooting the other team by 20 or more (Feb. 16 at the Tampa Bay Lightning and Thursday in San Jose against the Buffalo Sabres).
That trend has hurt the Sharks all year. Entering Wednesday, they ranked first in the NHL in shots per game but 12th in goals per game.
Special teams also failed the team the past 16 games.
The Sharks killed penalties at a disappointing 76-percent clip, and they had six games in which they were on the penalty kill four or more times. Conversely, they committed one or no minor penalties in just three games.
The overall numbers indicate they did decently on their own power play, scoring 27.6 percent of the time, but each contest was a crapshoot. The Sharks went scoreless on power plays in seven games.
As far as individual performances, every player seemed to fight one or more of the same problems: lazy turnovers, stupid penalties and unnecessary passes.
It”s tough to score goals and not give them up when the guys on the ice make those mistakes.
Of course, San Jose battled several key injuries, with defenseman Douglas Murray, All-Star Logan Couture and even head coach Todd McLellan missing games.
The team also continues to work in trade-deadline acquisitions Daniel Winnik and T.J. Galiardi.
Still, those roster shakeups are no excuse for the team”s ineffective play.
The Sharks lost games to some of the league”s bottom-feeders (like Edmonton, Buffalo, the Columbus Blue Jackets and Minnesota Wild).
Losses to awful teams are inexcusable in the postseason hunt and perhaps show that San Jose personnel lack the desire to succeed.
All that said, the Sharks have a clear task ahead. They must stop the bleeding because their enemies have sensed it and will continue to pounce.
San Jose players have it in them; many were on last year”s team that overcame a 2-8 winter stretch on its way to a first-place finish in the Pacific and a conference finals appearance.
With 17 games remaining, the Sharks must regain their composure, score more goals, win games and climb out of the depths of the West.
If the No. 3 seed becomes unattainable, San Jose has to get at least the No. 6 seed to avoid first-round matchups with the Vancouver Canucks and the Detroit Red Wings/St. Louis Blues (whichever wins the Central Division).
Should the Sharks fail and meet an early-round exit (or worse, miss the playoffs), team executives will likely dismantle the team.
As a result, underperfomers such as Michal Handzus and Antti Niemi and underachievers such as McLellan, Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton might not be back in the Bay.
Any Shark who enjoys San Jose should either wake up or pack up because his future with the team depends on the next month.
Editor”s note: You can follow Jeremy Walsh on Twitter, @JeremyDWalsh