Most of the country is in the throes of March Madness, though it”s probably not as big a deal in the Bay Area because only two teams from the region made the NCAA Men”s Division I Basketball Championship (of course, California lost Wednesday night).
Nevertheless, the craze officially begins today with the Round of 64. Here”s how I see it all shaking out.
East region
No. 1 seed Syracuse seems vulnerable with star center Fab Melo declared ineligible, so it”s only a matter of deciding when Orange will lose.
Look for it to come this weekend against Kansas State, which will have an easy ride to the Elite Eight because its Sweet 16 opponent will be Harvard (after wins against Vanderbilt and fellow Cinderella, Montana).
The bottom half of the region will hold true to seeding, with No. 2 Ohio State against No. 3 Florida State. In the Sweet 16 matchup, the Seminoles” stifling defense will key their victory over the Buckeyes.
Florida State will ride its ACC tournament title momentum all the way to the Final Four by outmatching Kansas State in the regional final.
Midwest region
The top half of the region looks straightforward. North Carolina and Michigan should meet in the Sweet 16 after facing little resistance from lower seeds. As a result, the Wolverines won”t be prepared for a tough Tar Heels squad.
Kansas will have little problem making it through its first two rounds, which will include a thrashing of St. Mary”s in the Round of 32.
The surprise team will be North Carolina State coming off of a strong ACC tournament performance. The Wolfpack will slow in the Sweet 16 – and in fact, will probably get overwhelmed by the superior Jayhawks.
Kansas will have a chip on its shoulder going into the Elite Eight, feeling like it, not North Carolina, should”ve been the No. 1 seed. The Jayhawks will nip the Tar Heels in a close one over former coach Roy Williams.
South region
Kentucky versus Connecticut will lead a strong Round of 32 bill, but the defending champs will prove no match for the Wildcats.
Kentucky”s victory will result in a much-anticipated rematch with Indiana, the only school to defeat the Wildcats during the regular season. Expect revenge there.
The other Sweet 16 matchup will pit No. 2 Duke and No. 3 Baylor, a game the Big 12 tournament runner-up Bears should dominate against the recently stagnant Blue Devils.
In an exhilarating Elite Eight, Kentucky (the tournament”s No. 1 overall seed) and its strong freshman group will stretch their game-long lead late (much like they did all season).
West region
Michigan State and Louisville will cruise into the Sweet 16, with the latter winning its second game over upset-minded Long Beach State. In the matchup of two coaches with championship pedigree, Tom Izzo”s Spartans will sail past Rick Pitino”s Cardinals.
In the bottom half, look for an entertaining Sweet 16 game between Marquette and Missouri to end with the Big 12 tournament champion Tigers prevailing.
Though Izzo is a Final Four machine, Missouri has a lot to prove and will stop Michigan State in its tracks. Watch for foul trouble and bench play to be keys in that game.
Final Four
To recap, No. 3 Florida State will meet No. 2 Kansas and No. 1 Kentucky will face No. 2 Missouri in the Final Four in New Orleans.
Florida State”s whirlwind run will end against Kansas mostly because the Seminoles” defense will falter under the big-game pressure. Look for a double-digit Jayhawk victory.
Kentucky and Missouri could be the best game of the tournament, with two high-energy teams clashing in the midst of incredible seasons.
Though the Wildcats are led by freshmen, experience will be in their favor because of coach John Calipari, who has taken at least one team to the Final Four (depends on how you think of the forfeited seasons).
While Missouri is a good team, Kentucky is a great one. The Wildcats will take a close one.
So, the championship game will feature high-profile programs Kansas and Kentucky.
Look for the contest to play out like their early season matchup, with the Wildcats edging out the Jayhawks (who were prone to laying an egg every once in a while this season).
In the end, Kentucky will have too much energy and depth for Kansas and give Coach Cal his first NCAA crown – only time will tell whether he”ll have to give that back too.
Editor”s note: Follow Jeremy Walsh on Twitter, @JeremyDWalsh
