The 112th edition of the United States Open Golf Championship tees it up next Thursday at The Olympic Club in San Francisco. The Olympic Club has hosted four previous U.S. Open tournaments, specifically in 1955, 1966, 1987 and 1998. The course will play to just more than 7,000 yards although that distance will seem longer to the 156 golfers in the field because of The Olympic Club”s proximity to the Pacific Ocean. The ball won”t fly as far because of the moisture in the air. Fog could also be an issue during the running of the championship.
The Olympic Club features what-you-see-is-what-you-get type of golf. There”s nothing tricky about it. The fairways are tree-lined with some subtle doglegs. There are only two fairway bunkers, and the second one on the 17th hole was only recently added by the United States Golf Association. The par is 71 because this time around the 17th will play as a 520-yard par-5 instead of a 480-yard par-4. The greens at Olympic are much smaller than those of most traditional U.S. Open venues although they are similar in size to the greens at Pebble Beach.
After four playings of the National Open at Olympic, some things are quite definitive whereas others remain to be seen. For instance, the winner of the 2012 U.S. Open will have to be an accurate driver of the golf ball off the tee. He will have to hit a large number of greens in regulation. Finally, he will have to have nerves of steel to be successful on the fast and sloping putting surfaces. That”s pretty much the classic formula for all eventual champions of the U.S. Open. Yet The Olympic Club and its history add another element when it comes to prognosticating the event”s ultimate champion. The favorite has never prevailed at the Open at The Olympic Club.
The 1955 Open was won by Jack Fleck in a playoff over Ben Hogan. In 1966 Billy Casper made up a seven-shot deficit over the final nine holes and then won a playoff over Arnold Palmer. The 1987 winner was journeyman Scott Simpson who came from two behind over the final nine to defeat Tom Watson by a single shot. In 1998 Lee Janzen made up a five-shot deficit to beat Payne Stewart by one stroke. In four different instances, decades apart, The Olympic Club has failed to recognize the favorite at golf”s toughest test.
If we”re going to attempt to pick a favorite at next week”s U.S. Open, we first need to consider that 75 percent of the field has no chance to win at Olympic. These are the golfers in the field who have qualified through the local and sectional route such as amateurs Cameron Wilson, Beau Hossier and Alberto Sanchez, or professional Casey Martin, now golf coach at Oregon, as well as Scott Langley and Cole Howard. Exempt players are in the field based on world rankings, the money list and past major accomplishments. Some former grand slam winners such as Trevor Immelman, Michael Campbell or Retief Goosen just haven”t played well over the past few years. They are in the field based on past accomplishments, but they will not be a factor this time around.
Also, if you buy into the theory that the favorite never wins at Olympic, then you have to assume that top linksters such as Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Rory McIlroy will not prevail at the 2012 United States Open. However, there are some top-flight golfers who have to be strongly considered because they have the game to survive the treachery of what it takes to win the National Open.
Northern Irishman Graeme McDowell won the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach two years ago. He is the No. 1-ranked golfer on tour in driving accuracy and he is rated 16th best in hitting greens in regulation. Golf”s center stage doesn”t seem to bother him as evidenced by his Open win coupled with his play as the anchor at the 2010 Ryder Cup Matches. Graeme McDowell might be a very good choice to win his second Open title at Olympic, something that also happened to Billy Casper in 1966 and Lee Janzen in 1998. If I had a little money to put on a golfer among the field of 156 contestants, I would take the odds on McDowell.
Englishman Luke Donald is another one of my favorites at this year”s U.S. Open. He is the No. 1-ranked golfer in the world. He was the leading money winner on both the American and European PGA Tours last season. He is ranked eighth in driving accuracy and third in putting this year. He has yet to win a major title, but I think most fans of the game fully expect him to get that first grand slam title on his golfing resume sooner than later. The Olympic Club sets up nicely for the way Luke Donald plays the game.
A golfer with a similar skill set as Donald”s is American Hunter Mahan. Mahan has matured into a consistent winner on the PGA Tour and he has been an impact member of the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup teams. He defeated Rory McIlroy in the World Match Play finals earlier this year. He is currently 10th in driving accuracy and sixth in greens in regulation this year. He”s never finished better than sixth in a major championship, but his game continues to improve and it should be a matter of time before he captures one of golf”s big four titles.
If dark horses such as Jack Fleck and Scott Simpson can win an Open at Olympic, then the same could happen again this year. Ben Curtis is one of my two dark horses with a chance of winning next weekend. He is 11th in driving accuracy and ranked first in putting statistics. He has rejuvenated his game with a win earlier this year at the Texas Open. Curtis has a major championship pedigree, having won an exciting British Open in 2003.
Finally, Zach Johnson wasn”t on anyone”s hot list when the 2012 season began. Yet the 2007 Masters champ recently won at Colonial and he has had a very solid first half of the year on the PGA Tour. He is 13th in driving accuracy and seventh in putting. On top of that, he has a brilliant wedge game.
The 112th annual U.S. Open tees it up Thursday at San Francisco”s Olympic Club. It”s never easy to figure out who will a 72-hole stroke play tournament against a field of 156 golfers, and the National Open at Olympic is even more difficult to prognosticate because of the failures of the favorites over the past four national championships played there. In the end, it”s anyone”s guess at this time, but then again, that”s why they tee it up and keep score for four days.
