LAKE COUNTY >> Rain is predicted through this afternoon, but the drought is still the dominant presence in Lake County.
“We”re looking at probably around one-tenth to one-third of an inch around the county,” Holly Osborne, meteorolgist for the National Weather Service in Sacramento said. “It”s going to be tapering off Thursday. There might be some showers lingering in the morning and drying out in the afternoon.”
In order for the drought conditions to be alleviated, Lake County Special Districts Compliance Coordinator Jan Coppinger said that two or three years of regular rainfall will be needed.
A normal amount of rainfall for Lake County is between 30 to 40 inches.
Currently, the county has received approximately 12 inches of rain this year, which is double of rainfall for all of 2013.
“The ground is so dry and it is mostly running off,” Coppinger continued. “In order to see an improvement in the water tables the ground needs to get saturated.”
Additionally, chances of an El Nino developing this winter have steadily decreased since summer, when initial hopes ran high.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), chances of an El Nino developing this winter have reduced by 7 percent. Currently, there is a 58 percent probability of an El Nino event.
“If El Nino emerges this year, it is likely to be weak,” the organization stated in a release.
In August, the NOAA released an reduced its El Nino forcast to a 65-percent likelihood from July”s 80 percent. A weak El Nino system does not indicate the amount of possible rainfall. It does, however, make it more difficult to forecast.
A report published in July from the University of California, Davis, echoed Coppinger”s concerns, stating that “the drought is likely to continue through 2015 – regardless of El Nino conditions.” Additionally, the study indicated that the drought “is responsible for the greatest absolute reduction to water availability for agriculture ever seen” and that “groundwater availability and use is the key to agricultural prosperity” and “will result in a 6.6 million acre-foot reduction in surface water available for agriculture,” as well as an estimated loss of a little more that 17,000 seasonal and part-time jobs
“With what little bit of rain we get, some people may think the drought is over, but we will need a lot more,” Coppinger said.
Contact J. W. Burch, IV at 900-2022.
