LAKE COUNTY >> The county has a wet week ahead of it, if forecasts hold true.
According to the National Weather Service, rain and showers are likely until the weekend. The pattern will add to the activity the county experienced since Friday.
“We can expected from an 1.25 of rain, up to 2.5 inches,” weather service meteorologist Eric Curth said. “It all depends on terrain.”
The heaviest rain is expected into this afternoon and Wednesday, during which thunderstorms are expected. An additional front may potentially move through the county Friday.
“It doesn”t look as wet as the other system, though,” Curth said.
Two or three years of regular rainfall would be needed to curtail the effects of the statewide drought in the county.
According to Lake County Special Districts Compliance Coordinator Jan Coppinger, a regular amount of rainfall is between 30 and 40 inches. On average, the county receives approximately 24.2 inches of rain each year. This figure includes data from dry years.
However, the area has received below average rainfall for the past two years and drought conditions for three.
This year, Lake County has seen approximately 17 inches of rain, according to data collected by the Lake County Air Quality Management Department.
Of those 17 inches, 3.31 are from November, while a little more than one inch was measured over the course of October. Run-off from the hills, necessary to reverse Clear Lake”s falling levels, will not begin in earnest until at least 6 inches seep into the ground.
February and March have garnered the most rainfall this year, totaling approximately 6.2 and 4.5 inches, respectively.
On the plus side, the amount of rainfall this year is more than double what the county received in 2013. Last year the area measured approximately 6 inches.
In 2012, the county received nearly 30 inches of rain, and 22.5 inches in 2011.
“We collect rainfall as a community benefit, it”s not by state regulations or anything,” Lake County Air Quality Management Director Doug Gearhart said. “It”s information that the public likes to know, and it is easy data to collect.”
Additionally, chances of an El Nino developing this winter have steadily decreased since summer, when initial hopes ran high.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), chances of an El Nino developing this winter have reduced by 7 percent. Currently, there is a 58 percent probability of an El Nino event.
“If El Nino emerges this year, it is likely to be weak,” the organization stated in a release. In August, the NOAA released an reduced its El Nino forecast to a 65-percent likelihood from July”s 80 percent. A weak El Nino system does not indicate the amount of possible rainfall. It does, however, make it more difficult to forecast.
A report published in July from the University of California, Davis, echoed Coppinger”s concerns, stating that “the drought is likely to continue through 2015 – regardless of El Nino conditions.” Additionally, the study indicated that the drought “is responsible for the greatest absolute reduction to water availability for agriculture ever seen” and that “groundwater availability and use is the key to agricultural prosperity” and “will result in a 6.6 million acre-foot reduction in surface water available for agriculture,” as well as an estimated loss of a little more that 17,000 seasonal and part-time jobs.
Contact J. W. Burch, IV at 900-2022.
