LAKE COUNTY >> The 141st running of the Kentucky Derby is Saturday at Churchill Downs in Kentucky, but not even this rapidly approaching high holy day in the horse racing world finds Lake County’s peerless pony prognosticator, The Dawg, in a good mood.
Not that he’s ever in a good mood.
Tucked away tightly at his large estate, Rancho del Dawg, Lake County’s Ph.D. in horse handicapping has been crunching all the numbers from all the big races leading up to Derby day while trying to settle on this year’s winner. And The Dawg knows how to pick winners these days.
Fact: He correctly predicted California Chrome’s win a year ago.
Fact: He picked back-to-back winners in 2011 (Animal Kingdom, a 20-1 shot) and in 2012 (I’ll Have Another, a 15-1 shot).
Fact: He didn’t come close in 2013, choosing Itsmyluckyday while Orb spoiled the party and The Dawg’s two-year Derby winning stroke.
Not that three winners in four years is a bad run.
“It’s way better than bad Mr. Sports Boy,” The Dawg said during an interview he granted last week. “The Giants may have three rings to show for their last five years, but I’ve picked Derby winners in three of the last four. I guess that makes me a Dawgynasty.”
You mean a dynasty, I inquired.
“Hey, old guy with the gimpy back, it’s Dawgynasty if I want it to be,” The Dawg snarled. “Just be glad I still take pity on you and share my winning picks with you. I know you made a little cashola the last few years, so don’t pretend like you didn’t.”
The Dawg never forgets his successes unlike his past failures.
Past Dawg picks such as Limpsalot, Runswrongway, Blackplague, Apollo13nag, Failsalot and Prideofthedodgers barely made it out of the starting gate let alone cross the finish line.
“You know, for an old guy you remember things way too well,” The Dawg snorted. “I don’t want to wish any memory loss on you but … well, yes I do.”
The Dawg isn’t known for his compassion.
“Yeah, I’m known for turning Lincolns into Hamiltons, Hamiltons into Jacksons and Jacksons into Franklins,” The Dawg chortled.
That’s true. He’s also turned Lincolns, Hamiltons, Jacksons and Franklins into torn up betting tickets and angry spouses on a handful of occasions
“There you go … again,” The Dawg shot back. “Negativity, negativity, negativity … a sign or your trade. You’ve been programed to be a Debbie downer.”
The Dawg’s grumpy disposition heading into Saturday’s race is twofold. This year’s Derby field has more than a few legitimate ponies running, but it’s also talking place on the same day as the Floyd Mayweather-Manny Pacquiao title fight at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas.
“They had to hold that fight on my day?” The Dawg said. “Talk about stealing my spotlight. I’m talking horses and everyone else is talking about two guys who are way past their prime. I mean, do they actually have to box or can they hit each other with their walkers?”
Yes, but it’s boxing Dawg and people seem to care more about boxing than horse racing.
“You could go to hell just for saying that,” The Dawg snapped. “Well, it’s probably too late for you in any event, but that little remark won’t help your chances when you’re approaching the gates. I didn’t say pearly gates, either.”
Man, that’s a bit harsh isn’t it Dawg? “No, harsh is paying $100 to watch a fight between two guys who were last relevant when Bill Clinton was president,” The Dawg howled. “I mean, can they even stand up for two or three rounds or will they get so many timeouts per round?”
I told The Dawg neither Mayweather or Pacquiao is that old.
“That’s what you say. The last time I saw them they were laughing at each other while sitting up in the balcony during The Muppets show,” The Dawg growled.
OK, but who do you like?
“I thought we were talking Kentucky Derby, not the battle royale at the old folks home,” The Dawg said. “I think Mayweather might trip over his skirt at some point, that is if Pacquiao doesn’t fall asleep first.”
And we’ll just leave the boxing at that.
Now, for the Kentucky Derby.
The Dawg rates Saturday’s field as a tough one with several legitimate horses. They are American Pharoah, Carpe Diem, Dortmund, Frosted and International State for starters.
“They all won their Kentucky Derby prep races,” The Dawg said. “To translate that into sportswriterease that means they won some BIG races that Derby winners often win.”
Dortmund, who will start in the No. 8 post position out of 20 (1 being closest to the rail), is likely to go off as the favorite, according to The Dawg. It’s one of two Bob Baffert horses in the field, the other being American Pharaoh. Dortmund, the Santa Anita Derby winner, is undefeated in six races. The only knock on him is he sometimes stumbles out of the starting gate.
Carpe Diem opens in the No. 2 post position, International Star at No. 12, Frosted at No. 15, and American Pharoah at No. 18.
By The Dawg’s reckoning, horses in the 1-4 pole positions have a tough time at the Derby. Horses in the middle, such as Dortmund, tend to do better. Horses on the far outside, such as American Pharoah, also have their work cut out, according to The Dawg.
“But it’s better than being on the rail,” he snorted.
Frosted needs to avoid trouble early in the race and be in a position to make a final sprint toward the end.
“He will close fast from the final one-eighth pole,” The Dawg said.
OK, OK, but who is going to win this year? Will The Dawg pick a winner for the second year in a row and for the fourth time in five years?
“You are an impatient SOB, aren’t you?” The Dawg said.
If you’re looking for a consensus winner from The Dawg pound — as in The Dawg’s group of grumpy and snarling friends — you’re out of luck.
While several of The Dawg’s buddies — Claws, Spiker and Pistol — will be in attendance at Churchill Downs on Saturday, coming from such faraway places as Derby, New York, Derby, Connecticut, and Derby, Kansas, they can’t agree on a winner. Not that it matters. The Dawg’s winner is the one he want … unless, of course, he screws up again like in 2013.
“Wow, I should just slap you,” The Dawg said.
No violence, Dawg, just winners if you please.
So, with a drumroll, The Dawg is happy to announce … or as happy as The Dawg ever gets … to select American Pharoah as your 2015 Kentucky Derby winner. He’ll draw the same jockey, Victor Espinoza, who rode California Chrome into the winner’s circle a year ago.
“He ran against a strong field of horses to an easy win in the Arkansas Derby. He was super impressive,” The Dawg said. “It was more like a workout. He beat the second-place horse by eight lengths.”
The Dawg’s pick, good or bad, will be the subject of a follow-up column next week.
“Start chilling the champagne now,” The Dawg said.
