The good news is that a low pressure system moving down the coast will likely bring showers to Lake County, perhaps as early as this afternoon. The bad news? The forecasts call for just enough to water lawns.
“It’s a little late in the year to see anything that will have a meaningful effect on the drought,” said Ken Clark, expert meteorologist with Accuweather.com.
Lake County should receive between a tenth to a quarter of an inch in average precipitation when the system moves inland on Thursday. Models suggest a slight change of a shower or two popping up today as the outer fringes of the storm approach.
“But Thursday will be the brunt of it,” said Brooke Bingaman, forecaster with the National Weather Service in Sacramento.
According to Accuweather, the drought will grow worse over the summer, reaching into the Pacific Northwest. In addition to extending the wildfire season, harsher drought conditions may bring hotter than normal temperatures in June and July.
“The only hope we have is winter,” Clark observed. “But we have to get to winter.”
Indications are that El Nino conditions will form in the Pacific as winter approaches. Californians have been taken down this hopeful route before, however. Last season the promised El Nino did not arrive until the end of winter. When it did come, it was too weak to affect weather patterns.
This time around, meteorologists are more cautious. They warn that any El Nino might again be weak. In addition, El Nino of any strength does not guarantee above average rainfall.
“Even if it is a good rain and snow season, one season will not take away four years of drought,” Clark noted.
Already Clear Lake has dipped from its early March level of 4.50 on the Rumsey Gauge to 4.00 on Tuesday afternoon, with some reports even lower, depending upon waves. The lake is considered full at 7.56 Rumsey.
The anticipated rainfall will have little effect on lake levels other than a momentary stabilization. And because the lake registered above 3.22 on May 1, Yolo County can began drawing water.
In 2009, when Clear Lake stood at just over 4.00 Rumsey on May 1, Yolo was allocated 21,593 acre-feet of water — enough to reduce levels by a foot. According to Record-Bee outdoors writer Terry Knight, summer heat will consume perhaps another three feet through evaporation.
But, as Bingaman pointed out, “any precipitation is great.”
She anticipates showers on Thursday into Friday.
“Unfortunately, you’re going to get the least amount of precipitation,” Clark added, pointing out that the storm will likely plow south, dumping two to three times the Lake County forecast amount on Los Angeles.
But forcast models suggest the low pressure system will offer the possibility of rain in spots during the weekend. A second system will move offshore on Monday or Tuesday, again bringing a slight chance of more precipitation.
“We’re looking at some kind of unsettled weather over the next seven days,” Bingaman said. “It’s hard for the models to detect. It’s going to weaken, but any shower development [over the weekend and next week] will probably be in the mountains.”
