The on-and-off-again weather system that could bust the four-year drought in California is back, and possibly much stronger than expected.
Scientists confirmed Thursday that an El Niño condition, which can trigger the rain-producing Pineapple Express, has taken hold in the Pacific Ocean and there is a strong chance it will last through the year.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center said there is a 90 percent likelihood the El Niño will last through the summer and an 80 percent chance it will endure through the winter.
NOAA forecasters reported on March 5 that a weak El Niño had formed in the Pacific Ocean near the Equator off South America and that it has gained some strength since then, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the agency’s climate prediction center.
An El Niño is an above-normal warming of the ocean’s surface temperature. The one in play now has penetrated to deeper waters, Halpert said.
“The big change is that we are confident this will last the rest of the year. The important thing now is how strong the event will become,” he said. “There is evidence that this is not ending anytime soon.”
NOAA will get a better idea how strong it will be in the coming months.
The condition impacts global weather patterns, parching some parts of the planet and bringing above-normal rainfall to other areas.
It could bring some relief to thirsty California, which is suffering from a four-year drought. But it is too soon to know how this ocean warming episode will play out, Halpert said.
“It’s a positive,” he said of the anticipated impact the condition could have on the state. “But we are a long way from seeing a sure thing at this point. You have a prolonged drought but you’ve got to start (the recovery) somewhere.”
This is the first El Niño to form in five years. The last one lasted from 2009 to 2010 and was classified as moderate to strong by NOAA.
El Niño formations do not stick to a timetable.
“It’s a natural part of the Pacific Ocean. There doesn’t seem to be any kind of regularity to them. They can be a couple of years apart or six to seven years apart. This is certainly in the realm of what we’ve seen historically.”
Kathy Hoxsie, a National Weather Service meteorologist based in Oxnard, said that there is an upside to NOAA’s new outlook.
“If it holds true, we have a better chance of getting back into our normal rain pattern, but there are a lot of ifs out there,” she said. “We don’t have a lot of precipitation in the summer. We don’t really expect it to have an impact on Southern California this summer.”
But the condition is usually accompanied by more rain in the late fall and winter months, she said.
The NWS is not expecting any short-term drought relief from the two late spring storms that hit the region.
“It’s one of those things we’ll have to look at after the (rainy) season is over,” she said.
