The tale of El Niño 2016 reads like two different stories.
In Northern California, the weather phenomenon has delivered above normal rain and snow this winter. Not so in Southern California, where rainfall is only half of normal for downtown Los Angeles.
Why the discrepancy? Climatologists have various theories but they are just that, theories. More importantly, time is running out on restoring Southern California to above-drought rainfall levels, leading to a disappointing end to what many predicted would be a very rainy winter that would make a dent in the driest four years in state history.
“Once you get past April 1, the amount of rain we get on average decreases remarkably,” said Ken Clark, expert meteorologist with AccuWeather.com in Southern California. “We are basically out of time to get back to normal (precipitation), that is, unless something really weird happens.”
While Clark came close to predicting a fifth drought year for Southern California; others are saying not so fast.
“Don’t throw El Niño under the bus until the end of April,” said Bill Patzert, climatologist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.
In the winter of 1982-1983, El Niño started late, producing the heaviest rains in March and April. While Patzert is getting heat for calling the 2015-2016 version a “Godzilla El Niño” since summer, he said on Monday it has performed as a late-bloomer like its predecessor in 1983, leaving a sliver of hope for tardy rains in March and April.
Patzert had predicted the brunt of El Niño would fall in February. Yet, Southern California turned warm and dry. While rains hit Southern California earlier this month and last weekend, the rainfall amounted to only 1.56 inches in downtown Los Angeles, the benchmark for rainfall totals in the region. By comparison, Lakeport received 7.64 inches between March 5 and Friday, well above the norm of 4.75 for the month.
It would have to rain 6 more inches this winter just for Southern California to get back to normal, he said.
“That is just not going to happen,” Clark added.
Meanwhile, Northern California is swimming in water.
As recently as January, for instance, Cache Creek was barely flowing under Stevens Bridge just west of Woodland near the Nature Conservancy. Early this week it was rushing and getting ready to overflow its banks in some areas.
On Friday afternoon Clear Lake measured 7.77 on the Rumsey Gauge, down from 7.81 thanks to the release of water yet well above the 7.56 mark, when the lake is considered full.
Clear Lake stood at just over 1 foot on the Rumsey Gauge at the start of the year but climbed steadily as rains drenched Lake County in January. Through the dry months of February the level plateaued just under 5 feet Rumsey. When rains resumed earlier this month, Clear Lake rose rapidly.
The story is the same across Northern California. Just before 4 p.m. Monday afternoon, the amount of water in Lake Oroville topped the 2,569,644 acre-feet that is the average storage for March 14, and that’s the first time in almost three years the lake has been where it’s supposed to be.
The lake water level was rising about a foot every 2 and a half hours Monday, according to the Department of Water Resources website. More important, about 5,000 acre-feet of water was being added to the lake each hour, with inflow to the lake topping 60,000 cubic feet per second. Releases into the Feather River below the dam were in the 825 cfs range.
DWR’s 4 p.m. website update put the lake storage at 2,571,997 acre-feet. That’s still just 73 percent of capacity, and 68 feet below the 900-foot elevation that is considered full.
The last time the lake was at average for the date was in May 2013.
Shasta Lake passed the “normal” milestone on Sunday, and by Monday morning was at 103 percent of normal for March 14. Inflows to the lake topped 100,000 cfs at points.
Trinity Lake is still low, 59 percent of average and 45 percent of capacity. Folsom Lake is still well over average at 116 percent, even though five floodgates on Folsom Dam are open and about 20,000 cfs is being dumped into the American River.
Black Butte Lake west of Orland is at 115 percent of average. The Yuba River reservoirs, Bullards Bar and Englebright, are at 126 and 113 percent respectively, according to DWR.
Last weekend water began to flow from the Sacramento River into the Yolo Bypass for the first time in three years. That caused county public works officials to shut down Old River Road, otherwise known as County Road 22, the first time it has done so since 2012, according to some reports.
Back in Southern California, meanwhile, a high-pressure ridge will chase away any hint of rain leaving sunny skies through Sunday. Temperatures will reach 82 degrees in Los Angeles on Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service Oxnard/Los Angeles office.
“The ridge of high pressure is building into the West Coast,” NWS meteorologist David Sweet said. “That will assure the sunny, drier warmer weather.”
In Northern California, that same ridge is bringing in more rain. Cloudy days are being predicted starting Saturday with rain likely on Sunday. According to Accuweather close to an inch will fall from Sunday through Tuesday in the lower elevations of Lake County. However, forecasters expect dry weather after that, extending all the way to the end of the month.
This El Niño did not behave like most large El Niños. It also got pushed around by a high-pressure ridge that shoved the jet stream to the north, sending what would have been local storms into Northern California, Oregon and Washington.
In six months, Patzert said, Oregon and Washington went from severe drought to near normal.
“Seattle and Portland stole our rain,” he said.
This El Niño may have disappointed in the south, but in the north, it’s a hit. Since Oct. 1, precipitation at stations in Northern Sierra, Southern Sierra and the Tulare basin reached 131 percent of average, 115 percent and 109 percent, respectively, according to the state Department of Water Resources.
The snowpack averaged 92 percent of normal in the three combined regions of the Sierra as of Monday. Because Southern California gets two-thirds of its water from the Colorado River and Northern California, the newly layered snowpack will aid Los Angeles and other cities that buy imported water come late spring and summer. The DWR has increased allocations from zero percent last year to 30 percent.
“In terms of water management … that is good news,” Patzert said. “For local water managers, it’s disappointing.”
As to why the majority of Pacific storms tracked north? Clark said other factors are at play, namely ocean winds and sea surface temperatures.
Patzert called the creation of high-pressure ridges — like the one bringing dry weather this week — a spoiler. Yet, even a rainy year would not return reservoirs and groundwater basins to pre-drought levels. That will take four to five years of above average rainfall.
Clark said the current ridge will break up by Sunday, leaving the door ajar for storms to enter.
“We are not done with rain,” he said. “I almost guarantee there will be more rain in March.”
How much more? No one knows.
“Don’t throw in the towel yet,” Patzert said.
