GLENHAVEN >> The Dawg is facing one of his toughest assignments ever in handicapping the field for the 142nd Kentucky Derby, which takes place Saturday at Churchill Downs.
As a way of introduction to those of you who are not familiar with him, The Dawg is Lake County’s peerless pony prognosticator. He has been handicapping the Derby for years and years for this newspaper and is on something of a big-time roll, having picked the winner in last year’s Run for the Roses, the incredibly great American Pharoah, as well as the winners in 2014 (California Chrome), 2012 (I’ll Have Another) and 2011 (Animal Kingdom). True, he screwed up in 2013 when Orb won the race and his nag crawled across the finish line, but four out of five isn’t bad.
And never mind that before 2011, his annual picks were akin to what you bag and throw away while taking your dog on walks.
“Wow, still with the jabs,” The Dawg snarled. “I give you four winners in the last five years and that disrespect is still flowing from a broken down sports scribe.”
The Dawg isn’t exactly receptive to criticism.
To be fair, The Dawg is in record territory as the 2016 Derby looms. He has never picked winners three years running. Still, by his own admission, there is nothing easy about handicapping this year’s field of 20 animals, some of which can actually run. He likes three horses a lot, which is The Dawg’s way of building in an excuse in case the horse he likes the most stumbles out of the gate and into the Bermuda Triangle, which is where many of his past picks have ended up. Frankly, they’ve never been seen again.
“Hey, bud, some of those losses were beyond my control,” The Dawg said of the freak tornado that sucked up one of his horses a decade ago or the time his Derby pick, Snoozeaway, simply stayed in the gate until they could wake him.
“You never let it go,” The Dawg said. “Give it a rest, Snoozeaway certainly did,” The Dawg chortled.
Three-Leg Charlie and Misdirection were two other Dawg picks back in the 1990s. Misdirection was the Derby horse that made a U-turn near the finish line and headed back to the gate, albeit in record time.
“Poor jockeying,” The Dawg said. “A good jockey never lets that happen.”
Seriously though, it’s time to get down to business. The Dawg is putting all of his dog bones on Nyquist come Saturday afternoon. Nyquist will probably open around 3-1 and might be the favorite although the field is wide open, according to The Dawg. He will start in the No. 13 pole position (yep, you just knew it had to be 13). The last time The Dawg’s pick started at No. 13, it tripped over a black cat, ran under a ladder and crashed into a mirror near the rail, ending his run.
Mario Gutierrez is Nyquist’s jockey and the horse is trained by Doug O’Neill.
Why does The Dawg like Nyquist?
“He was the impressive winner of the Florida Derby and he has been training well,” The Dawg said.
The Dawg picked Nyquist over his other two favorites, Exaggerator and Mor Spirit. Exaggerator is the winner of the Santa Anita Derby and has the breeding for the 1 1/4-mile distance of the Derby. He has no early speed, but The Dawg says he will be “flying at the end.” Mor Spirit has finished second in his last two races. If Churchill Downs is running fast on Saturday, he’ll be right there.
By way of making lots of money, The Dawg says a good long shot is Mo Tom. He should go off with great odds and he hasimpressive closing speed, so don’t panic if he isn’t running up front at the start.
The Dawg said he couldn’t verify whether Nyquist was sired by the stallion NyQuil, the horse owned by the company that makes the cough and cold medication.
“Don’t go making any connections,” The Dawg said. “That’s an unfounded rumor. Besides, if anyone needs a sleep aid, they only need read the stuff you write.”
The Dawg wouldn’t disclose how much coin he plans to lay down on Nyquist this Saturday, only that it was more than an over-the-hill sports editor could ever hope to earn during his lifetime.
“You know, I take pity on you by giving you the winner of this race every year and somehow you manage to blow the money you make,” The Dawg said from his lofty perch at Dawg Estates on the outskirts of Glenhaven, which is considering changing its name to Dawghaven in the near future.
An avid Democrat, The Dawg said he will donate 50 percent of any winnings this year to Hillary Clinton’s campaign for president.
“Don’t go mixing horse racing with politics even if both produce tons of manure,” The Dawg said. “I might vote for the crazy guy with the weird hairdo instead. Kind of reminds me of a horse’s mane.”
