STANFORD >> The California primary might not be a dogfight after all, according to a new poll that shows Hillary Clinton with a commanding 13 point lead over Bernie Sanders.
The poll released Tuesday by Stanford University’s Hoover Foundation is a far cry from last week’s Public Policy Institute of California survey that found the Democrats in a virtual dead heat, with Clinton leading by just two points.
The two polls are in agreement when it comes to the race for U.S. Senate. Both have Democrats Kamala Harris and Rep. Loretta Sanchez, likely advancing to a runoff in November with their top three Republican candidates far behind.
A new Field Poll scheduled for release this week could shed more light on the state of the presidential contest, but experts warn it could be a doozy to forecast. With a stunning 1.5 million Californians registering to vote as Democrats or independents so far this year — many of them under 35 — analysts said it’s hard to forecast exactly what the electorate will look like for the June 7 primary.
“We’re all guessing what the turnout will be, and there is an unknown as to who exactly will be voting,” said Bill Whalen, a Hoover Institution fellow.
Further muddying the picture for pollsters, Whalen said is that independents, known as No Party Preference voters, have to request a Democratic ballot in order to cast a vote in Democratic presidential primary, and most of them who vote by mail haven’t done so yet. The deadline to make that request is today, although independent voters can still exchange their ballots for a Democratic one at polling stations.
“Our poll has her crushing her among independents, but the question is how many of them show up, and how many of them who would like to vote for Bernie will get tripped up by the system,” Whalen said
The Hoover Poll showed Clinton leading Sanders 51 percent to 38 percent among likely voters.
In the Senate race, Harris led the field with 26 percent of the vote, followed by Sanchez with 13 percent. The leading Republicans, Ron Unz, Tom Del Beccaro and George “Duf” Sundheim were all tied with 6 percent.
The web-based poll of 1,700 voters was conducted by the polling firm YouGov between May 4 and 16. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.47 percent for the full sample.
