Should we stay or should we go?
The paraphrase of the 1982 song by The Clash has been co-opted lately in television commercials for a hotel chain, but it’s also the dilemma in which Great Britain finds itself.
On Thursday, Britons will decide whether their nation should remain part of the European Union. Polls indicate the vote, given the moniker Brexit, will be hairline close. But experts are unconvinced: Like last year’s unsuccessful vote for Scottish independence, voters tend to express the need for change to a pollster but stick with the status quo when they mark a ballot.
We hope that holds true. But one of the key drivers behind the move is unhappiness with the EU’s handling of mass immigration of refugees from the Middle East, and that may have pushed enough Brits over the edge.
This will be a seminal moment for the EU. Should Great Britain decide to leave, other nations might follow, diminishing the EU’s chance of survival. If the Remain side triumphs, it likely will discourage other such votes for a while.
A vote to leave the EU will create short-term chaos, both political and economic. David Cameron will be out as British prime minister, the European Union will be weaker and turmoil will ensue. The bitter campaign already may have claimed the life of a Parliament member who was killed on the streets Thursday by an assailant who, while addled, proclaimed political motives.
Brexit matters to America.
Market economies despise instability — especially in America. These would be the same markets in which your IRAs, 401(k)s and pension funds are heavily invested. So picture that Uncle Sam poster with the big guy pointing directly at — you. Remember the first two months of this year when financial uncertainty in China sent markets spiraling? That was a hiccup. Great Britain choosing to leave the European Union? That would be a financial volcano erupting.
That’s one reason the U.S. power structure takes it so seriously. American presidents usually stay out of internal political disputes in other countries, but President Barack Obama has urged Britons to stay. Janet Yellen, the chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve and arguably the second-most influential figure in the American economy, reinforced Brexit’s global import when she specifically cited it last week in announcing the Fed’s decision not to raise interest rates.
Refugees from Syria and other parts of the Middle East are straining all first world nations. In the United States, they are feeding the presidential campaign of Donald Trump, who would bar not only refugees but all Muslims.
The civilized world has to deal with this humanitarian crisis in unity. Isolationism at this point will be good for no one in the short or long run. We hope the polls are wrong and history on these kinds of elections stays the course.
Mercury News Editorial
