For Creative Strategies’ consumer technology analyst Carolina Milanesi, this holiday sales season looks like another blockbuster.
Technologies that were considered moonshots only a few years ago — like virtual reality, video game consoles combined with 4K resolution, or smart speakers connecting other devices inside a home — are now in stock at affordable prices. Milanesi expects the new Xbox One X console, the full gamut of 4K televisions and smart home speakers from Amazon, Google and Sonos to fare well this holiday season.
But Apple’s new golden goose, the iPhone X, may also eat into consumers’ wallets this holiday season. With a $999 price tag, Morgan Stanley analysts expect the iPhone X’s sky-high demand may take $30 billion of spending which normally is saved for other holiday shopping goods, such as gadgets and apparel.
Q: It seems to be a jam-packed holiday season. What’s on your radar?
A: We had the recent launch of Xbox One X, and video game consoles linked to 4K TV will be interesting to watch. But the biggest thing will be the connected home devices, which are used in different ways. In the past, if you wanted to have a Sonos, you had to figure out where to put the speakers. Now, due to Apple’s HomePod (its release date has been pushed to 2018) and Google Home, these devices figure out the room with artificial intelligence, which is easier for the consumer.
Q: Let’s start with the Xbox One X, since it came out earlier this month. Are video games still popular during the holidays? What do you think about Xbox One X?
A: It’s interesting with the console games. There are PC gamers and console gamers, and the PC market is having a bit of a resurgence because you can play games that are not available on consoles and PCs are getting very powerful. But the reviews (for the Xbox One X) have been positive. The concern is that there is no talk about VR, and that left some consumers unhappy. I got my Xbox One X recently, and what blew me away is the quality of the picture. If you have a 4K TV, it blows your mind.
Q: Speaking of new products launched this month, let’s talk about the iPhone X. Do you expect the iPhone X to dominate, despite its supply shortage this year?
A: I do think the iPhone lineup across the board will play a big role in the holiday sales. One specific big hitter lately was the wireless headset. I think that we will see more attention around that. We are resigned to the fact that audio jack is disappearing because wireless is good enough now with its sound quality for consumers to be confident.
I do think that the supply for the iPhone X is going to pick up. But it’s not all going to be all about iPhone X. People were waiting to see if they want the X or the 8. Some will choose what they already know. The other reason is the size: There is more screen in the iPhone 8 Plus. If you’ve been used to the Plus, (the iPhone X) takes some time to get used to.
But the iPhone X is unique. The smartphone market has been somewhat boring, so this change is good. It is pushing other vendors to start generating more excitement to this market.
Q: What do you see regarding smart speakers in general?
A: Your first decision to buying a speaker would be, do you want sound quality, or do you want an assistant? And then you’ll decide the price point. I have more speakers in my house than we do people, and I noticed something interesting: My 10-year-old daughter asks different things to different speakers. When she is asking for general searches, she asks for Google Assistant. When she wants music, she asks for Amazon Alexa or Siri. When it comes to certain games, she splits between Alexa and Google Assistant. That’s where we are right now, and you’ll figure out what you prioritize and how much you’ll want to pay, more or less.
Q: What about wearables, like Apple Watch and Fitbit? Apple Watch released a new version with cellular connectivity, and Fitbit released its first smartwatch, the Ionic.
A: Despite creating a smartwatch, Fitbit is still fitness-first. It is really Fitbit and fitness, versus Apple Watch, which is also fitness but includes app notifications and others. I’m still skeptical on the new Apple Watch with cellular; the new Watch is still limited. But since I got the Watch, I don’t feel like I need the iPhone near me at all times like before. I think I have not cut the umbilical cord to the iPhone, but it’s been extended.
Q: And now, I wanted to turn the subject a bit to what you do. What makes you qualified to talk about what product or company is hot and what is not? What exactly does a market analyst do?
A: I think the analyst job is really different depending on what you cover. There are those who cover the enterprise side, and there are those who cover the business side, influencing business decisions for companies. What we do is to comment to the press on market trends, identify the players. But the way we earn a living is by working with the companies to look at the market and making decisions and understanding opportunities opening up in the market.
