LAKE COUNTY — The 2017 Lake County Agricultural Report submitted by Agricultural Commissioner Steven Hajik shows overall growth, but Hajik has said the 2018 report, which will be finished over the course of this year, will not be so positive.
“There was a drop in the total value of ag in 2018,” Hajik said Wednesday. “At least $20 million.”
Smoke taint is one major factor Hajik has cited that caused a drop in agricultural revenues in 2018 is smoke taint in winegrapes as a result of wildfires in the county.
“I didn’t hear anyone talking about smoke taint in ’17 that affected a lot of people,” Hajik said at a board of supervisors meeting on Jan. 15 at which he presented his 2017 report. “In ’18, that’s all I heard about.”
Hajik also said at that meeting that he expects “at least a $10 million dollar hit on winegrapes for 2018.”
The 2017 crop report, by contrast, shows the impact that growth in the winegrape industry can have on Lake County’s agricultural value. As the county’s number one agricultural product, winegrapes grossed $85,178,871 in 2017, up from $78,643,584 in 2016. That’s nearly an 8 percent increase, which together with an almost equally large increase in the value of pears makes up most of the total increase in 2017 to the value of all agricultural products in the county. Nursery products increased in value as well, jumping 6 percent to a value of $980,981.
The winegrape growth came from overall increases in returns per ton to Lake County winegrape growers, production totals by weight, and the number of acres bearing fruit. In 2016, a ton of grapes brought in $1,690 on average in Lake County according to Hajik’s report. In 2017 that value was $90 higher, at $1,780. At the same time, a 6 percent growth in bearing acres was reported, accompanied by a 2.8 percent increase in grapes produced. Since 2004, according to data from the 2005 crop report, more than 1,500 acres of winegrapes have been added countywide.
Yield per acre remained relatively constant, down by one fifth of a ton from 2016. The 5.5 tons per acre recorded in 2017 are well beyond many past years’ yields, which did not top 5 tons per acre between 2004 and 2012.
Though slightly lower in its dollar amount, the 2016–17 jump in the gross value of pears was proportionately much larger than that of winegrapes. Pears’ $6,078,994 increase in 2017 added close to 23 percent to the crop’s total value from 2016. And while Bartlett pears, the region’s dominant variety, grew in gross value by roughly 21 percent, other varieties, which include Asian, Bosc, Comice and Seckel pears, grossed 39 percent more in 2017 than the year before.
But Hajik noted at the Jan. 15 meeting that earnings from pears, grapes and walnuts were down in 2018, as the next report will show.
“Next year’s going to be down,” Hajik said. “Pears are down. Grapes are down. Walnuts are down.”
Hajik reasoned that pear revenue dropped in 2018 because buyers saw a glut of Sacramento-area as well as Mendocino and Washington State fruit alongside Lake County’s, as the regions all harvested their product around the same time.
“Usually there is a distinct time for each area,” Hajik said Wednesday. “The yields are fine, the pears are fine. There were just too many pears on the market,” he said, noting that the Washington state harvest was the earliest ever.
To boot, Hajik said that a major pear grower in Lake County has recently pulled their pears.
“A large grower in 2019 has pulled out a lot of acres to replace them with winegrapes,” Hajik said, estimating that acreage at around 300.
Not only will pears, walnuts and grapes likely show a drop in value in the 2018 report, but timber may continue a downward trend as well.
From 2016 to 2017, Lake County’s timber value dropped from $5,101,380 to $173,447. Hajik said that this was due to fear of oncoming wood beetles following wild fires, which led those in the timber industry to sell their stock for a bargain.
“They sold the wood for cheap, mainly to China, who paid low prices,” Hajik said, “which resulted in a glut of timber and lumber in the industry as a whole.” Hajik added he suspects “the same thing is going to happen in 2018.”
Overall, Hajik estimates there was a $20 to $30 million drop in the total value of agriculture in Lake County in 2018. But winegrape revenues alone could be down by more than Hajik’s estimate, should the results of a 2018 survey translate into a direct value decrease.
According to Lake County Winegrape Commission Crush District 2 President Debra Sommerfield, a November 2018 survey carried out by the organization “indicated Lake County winegrape growers experienced approximately $37.1 million in losses based on estimates of: unharvested fruit, fruit that was harvested and sold at a discount, and estimated potential reductions on bulk wine.”
Sommerfield said local winegrape growers are collaborating on a research project to further the understanding of the impacts of smoke taint on wine.
In response to expressed interest from the board of supervisors, Hajik is pursuing funding for a report that would focus on the economic impact of agriculture to the county, and he is hopeful that he will be able to secure state money to get such a report made. He noted Wednesday that “several counties are already doing it.” The report would be compiled by a private firm.
Hajik hopes to have his office’s 2018 crop report ready by mid-2019.
