Editor’s Note: This is part one of a two part article on the effort to oust Calif. Gov. Gavin Newsom from office. Part two will print in Thursday’s Record Bee
Gov. Gavin Newsom is fighting for his political life. He’s working to fend off a recall that began as a far-fetched effort by Republican activists — but has turned into a credible campaign that could throw the Democrat out of office.
It’s hard to fathom in this deep blue state where Newsom clobbered his 2018 GOP opponent, although his job approval among voters has plunged from its high in the early months of the pandemic. But the coronavirus pandemic shifted California’s political landscape in two significant ways: It prompted a judge to give recall supporters more time to collect signatures — keeping their campaign alive long enough to gain momentum — and it led Newsom to enact a slew of new restrictions to curb the spread of the virus that have frustrated some Californians and energized recall backers.
The recall petition doesn’t say a word about the pandemic — it was written before the virus upended normal life. But it gained a surge of signatures after news broke in November that a maskless Newsom joined lobbyists for a dinner party at the posh French Laundry restaurant, even though he was telling Californians to mask up and avoid socializing. The count grew as the state’s unemployment system paid out billions to fraudsters, and its chaotic COVID vaccine distribution left people scrambling for shots. With many schools, churches and businesses closed by Newsom’s stay-at-home orders, the recall that began as a conservative rebuke of his progressive policies has morphed into a referendum on his pandemic response.
So is it election year again in California? Will you be asked to toss a governor just a year shy of the end of his term? It’s now all but certain, because recall supporters have submitted the signatures necessary to get it on the ballot. Here’s everything you need to know about recall elections in the Golden State.
How does a recall work anyway?
California is one of 19 states that allow voters to remove state officials before the end of their term. No reason is necessary — the only requirement to put a recall on the ballot is enough voter signatures. That number must be 12% of voters in the last election for the office, and must include voters in at least five counties. The magic number for Newsom’s would-be recallers: 1,495,709 valid signatures.
Election officials announced on April 26 that the recall campaign submitted 1,626,042 valid signatures — enough to qualify for the ballot. State officials must complete a few more steps to finalize the process, and then:
- An election will be held later this year. A date depends on when various preliminary steps are done, but would likely be in the fall.
- Voters will be asked two questions: Do they want to recall Newsom, yes or no? And, if more than 50% of voters say “yes,” who should replace him?
This is where things get strange. There’s no limit on the number of candidates who can run to replace an official on a recall ballot. And whoever gets the most votes wins — even without a majority. So it’s entirely possible that someone could be elected in a recall while winning less than half the votes. That’s what happened in 2003, when then-Gov. Gray Davis was recalled by 55% of voters. More than 100 people ran to replace him, carving up the votes and allowing action movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger to win with 48.6% support.
So what comes next? It’s confusing.
Even though local election officials have said they’ve counted enough valid signatures to trigger a recall election, there are a lot of bureaucratic steps before an election can take place. Here’s a look at the process that will unfold over the next few months:
How do officials verify signatures on recall petitions?
California has a long-established procedure for making sure that the people who sign petitions are who they say they are. Signature verification takes place at the registrar of voters for each of California’s 58 counties.
First, county election officials manually count the number of signatures that have been turned in. Then, they look at each signature and match it against the signature on a voter’s registration card. Finally, they check their work, said Neal Kelley, Orange County’s registrar of voters.
“It’s a pretty labor-intensive process,” he said. “People don’t realize the amount of time that goes into ensuring that it’s right.”
Kelley’s office has 15 people who do this job, each one assigned a batch of petitions. When they examine signatures, they’re supposed to look at the slant of the handwriting, the spacing between letters, and other factors — including how t’s are crossed and the shape of the loop on a g or a j. If a voter’s signature on the petition is significantly different from what’s on their registration card, it doesn’t count.
Elections officials also make sure each voter is only counted once. As they go through the petitions, they make notes in their computer system to keep track of voters that signed a petition and strike any duplicates.
Then counties report to the Secretary of State how many signatures they received and how many were invalid. After they finish this step (by April 29 for the Newsom recall), voters have 30 days to remove their signatures from the petitions if they want.
The Newsom recall campaign has been doing its own verification process before submitting signatures to the counties, said campaign consultant Dave Gilliard. That’s likely helped it achieve a high rate of valid signatures — about 84%.
That hasn’t stopped some conservatives from sowing doubts about California’s signature verification process as they tried to gin up support for the recall. GOP Rep. Darrell Issa of Vista told Politico he believes Democrats will “lie, cheat and steal” to manipulate the signature count, though he had no evidence of it. Numerous Republican politicians shared a false statement actor Kevin Sorbo posted on Twitter, claiming that California election officials checked signatures on the recall petitions, but not on mail-in ballots.
The signature verification process for mail-in ballots is the same as it is for petitions, Kelley said. And Gilliard, the veteran GOP consultant working on the recall, said he has confidence in elections officials.
“The system in California has always been very straight forward,” he said. “I don’t think the registrars will play games.”
Who’s behind the effort to throw Newsom out of office?
Republican activists have been trying to recall Newsom since shortly after he was inaugurated in January 2019. Five attempts failed to get enough signatures. But a sixth try, led by a retired sheriff’s deputy named Orrin Heatlie, gained momentum after a judge granted supporters extra time to collect signatures due to the stay-at-home order at the start of the pandemic.
Heatlie’s petition cites common conservative criticisms of California: high taxes, rampant homelessness, immigrant-friendly policies, and Newsom’s move to halt executions despite voters’ past support for the death penalty. Political consultants who worked on the 2003 recall of Gray Davis mailed the petition to potential supporters, an unusual technique that reflects constraints of signature-gathering amid a pandemic.
Heatlie, a Republican who lives in Folsom, calls his campaign a nonpartisan effort and says it includes former Democrats who have lost faith in Newsom. “This is a movement that has brought people together throughout the state and unified people from all walks of life,” Heatlie said in an interview.
A few Silicon Valley tech executives who previously donated to Democrats now support the recall. But the campaign’s largest funders and most visible backers are Republicans. Supporters include wealthy businessmen and established GOP politicians, as well as far-right extremists who have peddled misinformation.
“Voters signed recall petitions because California is on the wrong track, and we deserve better than the failures of this incompetent governor,” California GOP chairperson Jessica Millan Patterson said in a statement after the announcement on enough valid signatures. “Gavin Newsom earned this recall, and we look forward to helping him into early retirement later this fall.”
Newsom spokesman Dan Newman calls recall supporters “a strange mishmash of people who are motivated for different reasons….You’ve got some pro-Trump, anti-mask, anti-vaccine extremists, along with opportunistic and ambitious Republican politicians who would like to be governor.”
How are Democrats responding?
For months, Newsom deflected reporters’ questions about the recall, saying simply that he’s focused on his job as governor — working to improve vaccine distribution, reopen schools and help small businesses.
That changed in early March. Newsom used his unusual State of the State speech to lob a high-profile attack on his opponents, and then, a few days later, launched an official campaign to fight the recall. He promptly made the rounds on national television as California and national Democrats closed ranks to support him. Newsom’s strategy in a state that twice resoundingly rejected former President Donald Trump: Unite Democrats by portraying the recall as a fringey MAGA-inspired movement full of QAnon conspiracy theorists and anti-vaxxers.
An early attempt to push that message flopped in the aftermath of Trump loyalists’ Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. California Democrats held a press conference alleging links between the rioters and recall supporters, and calling the recall campaign a “California Coup.” Journalists immediately pointed out that a coup is an illegal seizure of power — while a recall is a democratic procedure enshrined in the California Constitution.
The California Democratic Party’s leader quickly walked back the “coup” comparison. But Democrats will continue tying the recall to Trump and the far right, given that the former president is deeply unpopular in California. That may be enough for Newsom to beat back the recall.
His campaign repeated the message after the secretary of state announced the recall campaign had turned in enough valid signatures. “The Republican recall — backed by partisan, pro-Trump, and far-right forces — threatens our values as Californians and seeks to undo the important progress we’ve made under Governor Newsom,” said a statement from campaign manager Juan Rodriguez.
Disaffected Democrats would have to support the recall in droves to make it successful in a state where just 24% of voters are registered Republicans and the GOP hasn’t won a statewide contest since 2006. Though they tend to vote for Democrats, roughly a quarter of California voters are not registered with either major party. So a key factor will be how much support Newsom hangs onto from liberal voters who don’t feel loyalty to him or the Democratic party.
