Newsom’s popularity skyrocketed early in the pandemic, with 63% of likely voters telling the Public Policy Institute of California that they approved of his job performance in May. Though his ratings have since dropped, Newsom remains far more popular than Gray Davis was at the same point in his recall campaign.
What Newsom has to worry about are voters like Jennifer Harris, who lives in Encinitas. She said she registered as a Democrat at age 18 and voted for Newsom in 2018, the same year she ran for school board as an endorsed Democrat. She supported Newsom’s actions early in the pandemic, including his first stay-at-home order. But as the pandemic dragged on, she saw little logic in the government’s rules to ban playgrounds and outdoor dining. And she grew unbearably frustrated with the closure of her kids’ public school — while many private schools (including the one Newsom’s children attend) remained open.
“The policy has not necessarily been good for the people that the Democratic Party says it’s supposed to be representing, which is the working class and the middle class,” Harris said. In the fall, she changed her voter registration to nonpartisan and signed the petition to recall Newsom.
College-educated suburban white women like Harris will be a critical constituency if the recall gets on the ballot, said Mike Madrid, a GOP political consultant with expertise in voter behavior. It’s a group that has traditionally supported Newsom, especially in coastal counties. “If they lose that base,” he said, “then it becomes a race.”
Polls show that Newsom is losing support among women and people who have kids at home. In May of 2020, PPIC found that 70% of female likely voters and 58% of likely voters with children in their household approved of Newsom’s job performance. By January that dropped to 57% of female likely voters and 49% of those living with kids.
Who might run to replace Newsom?
Caitlyn Jenner, a reality TV personality and former Olympic athlete, has launched a campaign. John Cox, a Republican businessman who lost to Newsom in 2018; Kevin Faulconer, the Republican former mayor of San Diego; and Doug Ose, a GOP former congressman from the Sacramento area have said they’re in. Ric Grenell, a former Trump official from Palm Springs, has hinted that he may run.
After the recall qualifies for the ballot, many other candidates will likely emerge as well. When Gray Davis was recalled in 2003, 135 people ran to replace him — including political novices like child actor Gary Coleman and pornographer Larry Flynt. One of the unconventional candidates from 2003 — adult film actress Mary Carey — says she’s running again.
Former Facebook executive Chamath Palihapitiya said on his podcast that he would put his name on the ballot if the Newsom recall qualifies, but then walked it back a couple weeks later, saying he’s not ready to run. He isn’t registered with either party, but has donated to Democrats, and criticizes the governor for California’s slow vaccine rollout and high taxes.
It’s not clear right now if any Democrats would run to replace Newsom. “Anything and everything is on the table,” California Democratic Party leader Rusty Hicks said in January.
One theory is that Newsom would be better positioned to beat back the recall if the options to replace him are too conservative for most California voters. “If they want to hold onto the governorship… it would be in Democrats’ best interests not to put up an alternate candidate,” said Democratic political consultant Marva Diaz, an editor of the nonpartisan California Targetbook. That would allow Democrats to focus on telling voters to vote “no” on the recall, and allow them to steer clear of a confusing message like, “Vote no on the recall, but if you vote yes, vote for…”
The other theory? “It would be political malpractice not to have a Democrat on the ballot on the second question” as insurance if Newsom’s numbers worsen, said Mike Madrid, a GOP political consultant not involved in the recall.
Dave Gilliard, a Republican consultant working on the recall campaign, anticipates a large field of candidates from across the political spectrum: “Once it’s apparent that the recall is going to be on the ballot, I think there will be major candidates from all parties, even independents. Voters will have lots of choices. I don’t think either party can control who will run and not run.”
Are recalls rare?
Attempts to recall politicians are extremely common in California, and growing more common nationwide. Successful recalls remain rare.
The only California governor ever recalled — and just the second nationwide — was Gray Davis. At the start of his second term, the Democrat faced the wrath of voters over his handling of the electricity crisis, a massive state deficit and an increase in vehicle license fees. Fueling the campaign: a $2 million donation from GOP Rep. Darrell Issa.
The real game-changer, of course, was the candidacy of Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Already famous worldwide, the actor and body-builder had been laying the groundwork for entering politics by sponsoring a ballot measure for after-school programs. He was a Republican with a bipartisan image, married to Maria Shriver, niece of Democratic former President John F. Kennedy. And he infused his campaign with celebrity: announcing his candidacy to host Jay Leno on “The Tonight Show”, dancing to “We’re Not Gonna Take It” at a rally with Twisted Sister, and inspiring plenty of parodies.
Since then, only one other gubernatorial recall has made the ballot in the U.S. — the 2012 attempt to throw Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker out of office. It failed.
