LAKE COUNTY – This advice about the risk from Omicron coming from the South African Ministry of Health is good to keep in mind: “You need to take precautionary measures. You have to be prepared but don’t hype it up.” (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/16/omicron-rules-pandemic/)
We have now been managing consequences of COVID-19 for almost two years. With vaccination and therapeutics advancing, many of us had begun to hope it was disappearing as a worry. Unfortunately, for the past few weeks, the daily news is filled with talk of the “Omicron variant.”
Will this new mutation lead to a terrible surge? Is this just another frustrating phase of a protracted pandemic? Answers to these questions aren’t known yet, but new information is coming in every day. We can make educated guesses about what may be coming, and what steps we should take to keep our families and communities safe.
Omicron Variant – What we know and don’t know right now
· Contagion: This new variant spreads very rapidly, and will likely lead to a surge of cases in the coming months. How bad it will get, and when it will peak, are subjects of a lot of discussion in the Public Health world right now. No one is certain.
· Vaccination: Current data suggest 2 doses of vaccine may provide about 30% protection from infection (it was over 90% before Omicron). Getting a booster likely increases protection to 70% or so.
- People who have been vaccinated are at risk for getting the virus, although with some protection. Getting the booster seems to make a huge difference in protection from getting the virus. Vaccinated people can still get and spread the virus, so we must all do our part by taking precautions.
- Unvaccinated people with previous COVID infection seem to be susceptible to reinfection. We don’t have exact percentages of risk yet.
- Unvaccinated people who have not been infected are very vulnerable to catching it, and previous levels of precautions are probably not enough to keep safe from this new and highly infectious version of the virus.
- Severe Illness/Death: Early evidence suggests Omicron is probably not more lethal than previous variants, and the vaccine, especially with a booster, seems to be very helpful in preventing serious illness and death. People highly susceptible to severe infection (e.g. those with pre-existing conditions; the elderly) may still be vulnerable. High-risk people who are unvaccinated are very vulnerable to illness and death.
- Treatment: Monoclonal antibodies are one treatment, but they require an IV line. It appears they are less effective against Omicron. Two new pills for high-risk people to take once infected are expected soon, and one of these looks to be quite effective, even against Omicron. Hopefully, they will be available within a month, or so.
Working together to overcome Omicron – Facts and tips for Lake County residents
Vaccination status
- Total: 1/3 of all eligible people in Lake County remain unvaccinated; they are the group most likely to be seriously affected if a surge comes.
- School-age kids: Only 4% of Lake County’s 5-11 year olds have received at least one dose (statewide, it is 20%). Schools are a potential source of spread.
- Working age and those with school-age kids: Only 55% of those 18-49 are fully vaccinated. This is the group who tend to be working and out in the community a lot, and a large percentage are not well protected.
- Elders: About 25% of Lake County residents age 64 and older are unvaccinated. This is the most vulnerable group for serious illness and death.
- Boosters: More than 8,700 Lake County residents have received a booster so far, let’s keep increasing that number!
Is Omicron here? No specific cases have been identified in Lake County as we are writing this article. Omicron has been identified in the Bay Area. It will certainly be here within the next few weeks, if it is not here already. At this point, we believe the Delta Variant remains the most prevalent virus type in Lake County.
What should we watch out for? Cases will likely rise in the coming weeks. Minimizing hospitalizations and deaths from COVID are our chief concerns at this point. Lake County still has a very limited number of hospital and ICU beds, and transportation of sick people out the area can be a real challenge. Improving vaccination rates, keeping schools open, monitoring for severe illness, and maintaining some hospital availability are near-term priorities.
What can we do? If you are unvaccinated, get the shot ASAP. Everyone 5 years old and up is eligible. If vaccinated, get the booster ASAP if you are 16 years and older, and it has been more than six months since your second dose, or at least two months since your initial Johnson & Johnson (Janssen) one-dose vaccination. Your booster dose can be any COVID-19 vaccine approved in the United States.
More Measures to Slow the Spread
- Masks: Masking definitely decreases spread. California issued a mandate for one month, starting 12/15. Masks must be worn at all indoor public venues. This is designed to slow the spread of Omicron and contain another surge.
- Testing: Get tested if you have any symptoms or if you are going to indoor gatherings. Rapid tests are available, so you can test on the day you are going to an event. Test even if you are vaccinated, because you can spread the virus to other, vulnerable people. If you test positive, stay home.
- Be aware: Take greater caution when the virus is more prevalent in the community. Protect high-risk people in your household. Avoid going to work or school when you have symptoms. These kinds of neighborly actions can go a long way toward minimizing spread, keeping people safe, and keeping the hospitals from filling up.
What are the likely impacts of Omicron in the coming weeks? While we aren’t sure, we can make some predictions. If Omicron spreads around the US like it has in Europe and South Africa, “There may be a rise in deaths among older, vulnerable people — such as those in nursing homes — and the mass absences from work would have major societal consequences. Even if only a small percentage of people get ill or die, a small percentage of a very large number would still be a large number,” three global health experts advise (https://time.com/6128506/omicron-covid-19-how-to-fight/).
Please get vaccinated or a booster. Enjoy your family and friends this holiday season, but taking some extra precautions may prevent a lot of suffering later on.
— Submitted, Gary Pace, MD, MPH
