For every action in politics there is a reaction, and here is proof: The Dobbs decision last June, repealing a national right to abortion, was a devastating blow to women personally, but a huge benefit to Democrats politically.
As President Biden formally announced his bid for a second term, his campaign slogan could be boiled down to four words: Fear Trump; favor Joe. And one of Biden’s best arguments — the single most tangible example of the stakes involved — is the Dobbs opinion, joined by three justices his predecessor appointed to the Supreme Court.
Biden’s campaign ads write themselves, and shrewd Republicans sense the danger. After a pro-abortion rights candidate for a state supreme court judgeship in Wisconsin crushed an anti-abortion crusader earlier this month, the Wall Street Journal editorial page called the outcome a “five-alarm warning to Republicans” and predicted, “Republicans had better get their abortion position straight, and more in line with where voters are, or they will face another disappointment in 2024.”
Rep. Nancy Mace, a South Carolina Republican, told CNN: “We’ve got to show compassion on the abortion issue because by and large most Americans aren’t with us on this issue.”
The next election is 18 months away, and many uncontrollable events — from Chinese threats heating up in Taiwan to Biden falling down in Delaware — could suddenly alter the landscape. Moreover, Biden enters the campaign with huge drawbacks, starting with his age (he’ll be 82 on Election Day) and sporadic moments of forgetfulness. In a recent ABC/Washington Post poll, 58% of Democrats preferred a different party nominee, with only 31% backing Biden, and his approval rating remains stuck in the low 40s.
He also boasts some assets, including a 3.5% unemployment rate and a huge federal investment in infrastructure spending. Expect Biden to repeat the word “jobs” as often as possible — especially jobs for workers without a college degree — and wherever a large piece of yellow construction equipment helps rebuild a bridge or break ground for a factory, Biden will be there, taking credit and making campaign videos.
Biden does little to stir Democratic souls, but he’s right when he quotes his father, saying, “Joey, don’t compare me to the Almighty. Compare me to the alternative.” That alternative, a second Trump term, is by far Biden’s best argument for his reelection, and here’s where the abortion issue could be so critical.
According to the Pew Research Center, 62% of Americans agree that abortion should be legal “in all or most cases,” and that total rises to 74% among young voters under 30 — a key Democratic constituency. Fully 57% oppose the Dobbs decision, with only 41% supporting it, and the gender gap is massive: Men reject the ruling by 5 points and women by 26.
Those figures reflect a basic truth: Issues are far more salient if they directly affect voters’ lives, like inflation. For 50 years abortion was a settled question, supporters took their rights for granted and the intensity was generated by opponents who were fighting to change the law. Dobbs drastically altered that dynamic. Many women suddenly felt personally threatened, their intensity level soared and their political calculation shifted.
After studying the results of last fall’s elections, where Democrats outperformed expectations, political analyst Amy Walter concluded, “abortion mattered most to the kinds of swing voters who Republicans should have been able to win over” — moderate, independent-minded women. Walter quotes Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg, saying, “I think the existential threat of Republicans to Democrats as it was presented in Dobbs, but it wasn’t just Dobbs, drove turnout, drove voting Democratic, drove particularly independent women voting.”
She’s right. It wasn’t just Dobbs. The Supreme Court decision symbolized a larger point: a toxic masculinity embodied by Trump; a belief embedded in the Republican Party that powerful men could tell women what to do with their lives and bodies. Walter cites two Republican strategy firms that discerned, “for many women, the issue was about much more than abortion. It was about how we (Republicans) view and respect women in America. This sentiment is deeply felt and highly nuanced.”
If anything, many Republicans seem intent on doubling down on a losing bet. Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida just signed a bill banning abortions after six weeks. Former Vice President Mike Pence is endorsing a national ban on the procedure. In trying to appeal to their most rigid right-wing loyalists, Republicans are handing Democrats a gift-wrapped, gold-plated campaign issue.
(Steven Roberts teaches politics and journalism at George Washington University. He can be contacted by email at stevecokie@gmail.com.)
