”Survey says” looks at various rankings and scorecards judging geographic locations while noting these grades are best seen as a mix of artful interpretation and data.
Buzz: The gap between Californians relocating across the United States and the number of newcomers more than doubled between 2019 and 2021.
Source: My trusty spreadsheet reviewed the Census Bureau’s state-to-state migration report for 2021, as it compared with 2019 data. The bureau skipped a 2020 report as pandemic limitations prevented a more accurate tabulation.
Note that the Census tracks residents, age 1 and older, and whether they moved to another state, relocated within the same state, or just stayed put.
Topline
Let’s look at California’s relocation mismatch, noting that interstate moves nationwide rose by 6% in these two years.
- More outbound: California lost 841,065 residents to other states in 2021, up 29% from the 653,551 exits in 2019.
- Fewer incoming: The state attracted 433,402 people from across the nation in 2021, down 10% from the 480,204 arrivals in 2019.
- That adds up to the state’s “net outmigration” – demographers’ lingo for more outs than ins – ballooning by 135% in these two years to 407,663 in 2021 vs. 173,347 in 2019.
Exits
California lost more residents in 2021 than any other state. The next highest for outflow was New York at 571,041, Florida at 469,577, Texas at 447,363 and Illinois at 341,425.
If you consider California’s loss as a share of its 38.8 million population, the outflow looks relatively modest. Exits equaled 2.2% of all residents, a departure rate tied with Florida for 14th best and below the 2.4% of U.S. residents who switched states in 2021.
RELATED: IRS data says 11% fewer Americans moved to California over 5 years
By this metric, Maine lost the smallest share of its residents at 1.4%. Then came Texas at 1.5% and Michigan at 1.6%.
Washington D.C. had the highest exit rate at 9.5%, then Wyoming at 6.1% and Alaska at 5.8%.
Arrivals
California ranked No. 3 for the number of 2021 newcomers. The top states were Florida at 674,740 and Texas at 591,395.
But new Californians are just a small slice of its population – 1.1% of all residents. That translates to the worst attraction rate among the states – and less than half of the national norm.
RELATED: Where do people go when they leave California and why?
Worst, after California, was Michigan at 1.4%, and New York at 1.5%. Texas was eighth-lowest at 2%.
The hottest places for the newcomers: DC with arrivals equal to 8.7% of its population, Idaho at 5.1% and Hawaii at 5%. Florida was No. 23 at 3.1%.
The net
Finally, when comparing ins vs. outs, California had the nation’s largest net outmigration. No. 2 was New York at 283,792, and then Illinois at 146,248.
Florida had the No. 1 net influx at 205,163, then Texas at 144,032, and North Carolina at 99,406.
Bottom line
The spreadsheet says California’s overall population – age 1 and older – fell by 250,000 between these two years.
Why? Well, there are the usual complaints – from costs to congestion to civic issues. And California’s stiff pandemic limitations, which ran for much of 2020 and well into 2021, were likely a factor – both nudging folks out and keeping potential relocations away.
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Plus, don’t overlook foreign immigration. Namely, less of it.
California arrivals from other lands fell 29% in these two years to 188,700. Note that pandemic travel restrictions trimmed foreign newcomers nationwide by 23% in 2019-21.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
