Donald Trump’s mounting legal troubles are having two contradictory effects on his political fortunes.
In the short run, the federal indictment on 37 counts of mishandling classified documents is clearly helping him. His well-oiled fundraising machine fired up immediately, flooding supporters with grievance-filled appeals to counter “never-ending witch hunts,” and his popularity with Republican loyalists actually seems to be increasing. The website FiveThirtyEight reports that in an average of national polls, 54.4% of GOP voters now favor nominating Trump again, up from 46% in March.
Moreover, most of his rivals for the nomination feel compelled to defend Trump — and attack the FBI and the Justice Department — out of a cynical but solid fear of alienating the fervent members of MAGA Nation.
But the long run presents a very different picture. If Trump does secure the GOP nomination, the criminal charges already filed against him — and others that are likely to be brought in the future — could weigh heavily with the swing voters in a handful of key states that will decide the 2024 election.
In the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll, 48% of Americans agree that Trump should have been charged in the federal case, with only 35% dissenting. Sixty-one percent described the charges as serious, and only 28% said they weren’t.
The threat to Trump politically is not the legal charges themselves, which might not even come to trial before next year’s election. It is the larger message emanating from this episode: Trump equals tumult and turmoil. And that raises a critical question for marginal voters: Do they really want four more years of chaos in the White House?
In politics, issues resonate more deeply when folks are already primed to feel a certain way about them. Joe Biden’s stumbles alarm voters (and Democratic strategists) because his age and acuity are already a cause for concern. In the same way, Trump’s legal woes reinforce a growing conviction (even among some Republicans) that he is too reckless and too dangerous to be trusted with power again.
That’s why Chris Sununu, the popular Republican governor of New Hampshire, warned on Fox News after the latest indictments, “There’s no way Donald Trump can beat Joe Biden in November.”
“He is a loser,” Sununu told CNN’s Anderson Cooper. “It’s not just him that I’m worried about. I’m worried about the U.S. Senate races. I’m worried about the governorships. I’m worried about the ballot that he affects up and down the ticket.”
Some of Trump’s Republican critics emphasize how the indictments highlight his personal flaws, his mercurial temperament and erratic judgment. “If even half of it is true, he’s toast,” Bill Barr, Trump’s own attorney general, said on Fox News. On CBS, he added: “He’s so egotistical that he has this penchant for conducting risky, reckless acts to show that he can sort of get away with it. There’s no excuse for what he did here.”
“We can’t dismiss the question of character anymore,” asserts Chris Christie, the former New Jersey governor who once advised Trump and is now running against him. “If we do, we get what we deserve.”
Other anti-Trump Republicans worry that their party is losing its direction and its core conservative values, and that Trump’s assault on the FBI and the Justice Department in the wake of his indictments symbolizes those fears.
Asa Hutchinson, the former Arkansas governor who is waging a longshot challenge to Trump, said on CNN: “The Republican Party stands for the rule of law and our system of justice. Let’s not undermine that by our rhetoric, by making up facts and by accusing the Department of Justice of things that there is no evidence of.”
For former Vice President Mike Pence, Trump’s trashing of cherished conservative principles goes back at least to the insurrection of Jan. 6, 2021, when he encouraged Pence to violate his oath and vitiate the election returns.
“On that day, President Trump also demanded that I choose between him and the Constitution,” Pence said in announcing his own candidacy for the GOP nomination. “Now, voters will be faced with the same choice. I chose the Constitution, and I always will. I believe that anyone who puts themselves over the Constitution should never be president of the United States.”
All of these criticisms and concerns are unlikely to seriously hinder Trump’s path to the nomination. But they will provide potent ammunition for his Democratic rivals. And in the end, the voters — not any judge or jury — will make the definitive decision about Donald Trump.
(Steven Roberts teaches politics and journalism at George Washington University. He can be contacted by email at stevecokie@gmail.com.)
