Is Ron DeSantis defeated? Not yet. But he is clearly depleted and increasingly desperate.
It’s still six months before real voters cast actual votes in the Iowa caucuses. But right now, Republicans are conducting what is called the “invisible primary,” and success in that contest can be measured by three metrics — polls, money and staff. On all counts, the Florida governor is trailing badly. As Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin bluntly concludes: “DeSantis now has the aura of a loser, a failed candidate.”
On paper, DeSantis might be the ideal candidate. At 44, he’s 32 years younger than Donald Trump. He’s won two terms in a critical swing state and shown a flair for attracting Latino voters. His background — a naval officer from a blue-collar Italian family with two Ivy League degrees, a camera-ready wife and three adorable children — is almost too perfect.
But politics, like baseball, is played on the field. You have to perform. And DeSantis is like a rookie who tore up the lower minors but suddenly finds he can’t hit major league pitching.
Consider the polls, the first gauge of success in the invisible primary. Six months ago, in an average of national surveys, 44% of Republicans preferred Trump, but 31% favored DeSantis, a gap of 13 points. Today, that margin has ballooned to 33 points, with Trump rising to 53 and DeSantis dropping to 20.
The second measure is money. DeSantis did raise about $20 million in the second quarter, but that’s still well below Trump’s $35 million and Joe Biden’s $72 million. Moreover, about 85% of the governor’s haul came from big donors who have contributed the maximum under federal rules — an ominous sign. It shows a lack of excitement among grassroots supporters, and means that DeSantis can’t keep going back to those donors for more dollars.
The third dimension of the invisible primary is staff. And instead of adding operatives, DeSantis was recently forced, by a cash crunch, to fire about a dozen people — a public relations disaster.
As a result, possible supporters are starting to get cold feet. Thomas Peterffy, a top GOP donor, told the Financial Times, “Myself, and a bunch of friends, are holding our powder dry.”
What explains the DeSantis decline? Candidates who do well at the state level often have no idea what it means to run for national office. The spotlight is so much brighter, the scrutiny so much stricter, the standards so much higher.
When DeSantis called the Russian invasion of Ukraine a “territorial dispute,” he didn’t just show his ignorance on foreign policy. He cast doubt on his own judgment, a far more serious misstep. Few voters care what Florida’s governor thinks about Ukraine, but if you are running for president, suddenly people care a whole lot.
Then there’s his strategy, trying to run to the right of Trump on social issues, promoting his “anti-woke” crusade in Florida and the bill he signed banning abortions after six weeks. But there’s no lane to the right of Trump in Republican politics. There’s not even a shoulder, just a concrete barrier. In fact, DeSantis admitted on CNN, “Not everyone really knows what wokeness is.”
No wonder voters are confused. Conservative commentator Erick Erickson called the DeSantis campaign “rudderless” in the Post and explained, “It’s a campaign without a message yet. I overwhelmingly hear from callers on my radio show that, ‘We don’t care about Florida. What can you do for me?'”
DeSantis’ problems go beyond his message or his policies. He lacks the gift that all great politicians have: the ability to connect with voters on an emotional level, to make them feel that he knows and understands them. Trump insists that DeSantis needs a “personality transplant,” and while the ex-president says many untrue things, that’s not one of them. Americans want optimistic, forward-looking candidates, and columnist George Will calls DeSantis an “unhappy warrior.” Katie Stallard in the New Statesman observes, “The governor of Florida wanted to be seen as ‘Trump without the chaos’ — but is more ‘Trump without the charisma.'”
DeSantis’ problems can’t be seen in isolation. Like many of us, he badly underestimated Trump’s hold on the Republican base, and how his rival’s cascading legal problems would actually solidify his standing with primary voters. See, Trump gets to say, “I told you so. They’re all out to get me — and you.”
Six months is a long time in politics, but at this point, the invisible primary looks like a decisive debacle for DeSantis.
(Steven Roberts teaches politics and journalism at George Washington University. He can be contacted by email at stevecokie@gmail.com.)
