On the campaign trail, both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are eager to portray themselves as guardians of Medicare. Each presidential candidate accuses the other of backing spending cuts and other policies that would damage the health insurance program for older Americans.
But the election’s outcome could alter the very nature of the nearly 60-year-old federal program. More than half of Medicare beneficiaries are already enrolled in plans, called Medicare Advantage, run by commercial insurers, and if Trump wins, that proportion is expected to grow — perhaps dramatically.
Trump and many congressional Republicans have already taken steps to aggressively promote Medicare Advantage. And Project 2025, a political wish list produced by the conservative Heritage Foundation for the next presidency, calls for making insurer-run plans the default enrollment option for Medicare.
Such a change would effectively privatize the program, because people tend to stick with the plans they’re initially enrolled in, health analysts say. Trump has repeatedly tried to distance himself from Project 2025, though the document’s authors include numerous people who worked in his first administration.
Conservatives say Medicare beneficiaries are better off in the popular Advantage plans, which offer more benefits than the traditional, government-run program. Critics say increasing insurers’ control of the program would trap consumers in health plans that are costlier to taxpayers and that can restrict their care, including by imposing onerous prior authorization requirements for some procedures.
“Traditional Medicare will wither on the vine,” said Robert Berenson, a former official in the Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton administrations who’s now a senior fellow at the Urban Institute, a left-leaning research group.
While the fate of Medicare has gotten scant attention so far in the campaign, the different visions under Trump versus Harris indicate the high stakes.
A candidate’s position on protecting Medicare and Social Security is the most important health care issue, or among the most important, in determining 63% of Americans’ vote in the presidential election, according to a September poll by Gallup and West Health, a family of nonprofit and nonpartisan organizations focused on health care and aging.
Medicare, which covers about 66 million people, is funded largely by payroll taxes. At age 65, most Americans are automatically enrolled in Medicare coverage for hospitalization and doctor visits, known as Part A and Part B, though others must sign up. Consumers must also sign up for other aspects of Medicare, specifically drug coverage (Part D) and supplemental plans from insurers that pay for costs that aren’t covered by traditional Medicare, such as extended stays in skilled nursing facilities and cost sharing.
People on Medicare pay premiums plus as much as 20% of the cost of their care.
Medicare Advantage plans typically combine coverage for hospital and outpatient care and prescriptions, while eliminating the 20% coinsurance requirement and capping customers’ annual out-of-pocket costs. Many of the plans don’t charge an extra monthly premium, though some carry a deductible — an amount patients must pay each year before coverage kicks in.
Sometimes the plans throw in extras like coverage for eye exams and glasses or gym memberships.
