Elections have consequences, and winners set the rules — up to a point. In a healthy democracy, the majority’s power should always be tempered by a decent respect for minority rights. Otherwise, ruthless rulers can subvert the underlying system and entrench themselves as permanent powers.
That’s the tension playing out right now in Texas, where President Trump is pressuring the Republican governor and state legislators to redraw congressional boundaries and give the GOP as many as five new seats. His goal is to rig the next election — more than a year before a single ballot is cast.
Republicans currently control the House of Representatives by a fragile three-seat margin. And since the president’s party almost always loses seats in midterm elections, Democrats have a strong chance of retaking the chamber next year and throttling the rest of Trump’s legislative agenda.
More important, Democrats would control the House committees, giving them a platform to initiate investigations, hold hearings, summon witnesses, ask uncomfortable questions and generally bedevil the Trump White House.
That’s why the president is so determined to protect Republican control. But his plan to redraw congressional districts — not just in Texas, but in other states as well — has outraged even some Republicans: true conservatives who are not mesmerized by Trump and actually believe in the rule of law.
Burt Solomons, a longtime Republican lawmaker in Texas and an expert on congressional districts, wrote in the New York Times that Trump’s crusade is “a blatant power grab threatening our system of representative government. It would inject more partisanship into our already polarized politics.”
Partisanship is a good thing in a democracy. Voters deserve clear choices. But this is a vast and diverse country, and it can be governed effectively only if rival parties recognize each other’s interests and integrity. In today’s Washington, D.C., opponents barely speak to each other. Negotiations are an act of betrayal, compromise a sign of heresy.
While there are many causes behind the “polarized politics” Solomons describes, one main culprit is the blatant gerrymandering of congressional districts Trump is advocating in Texas and other states. Both parties have been guilty of this sin for years now in the states they control, drawing maps that guarantee victory in a maximum number of seats.
As a result, only 63 out of 435 districts are considered “in play” next year, according to the authoritative website Inside Elections. In at least 85% of House districts, voters have no real choice; the outcome is preordained.
Since the vast majority of House members have no fear of defeat, they don’t have to pay attention to voters of the other party. In fact, their only real concern is a primary challenge from a more rigid or radical opponent.
Normally, redistricting takes place every 10 years, adjusting lines after the regular census to reflect population shifts. Trump’s meddling now, long before the next census, badly aggravates the problem and threatens to set a terrible precedent. “If any president can order up redistricting in this way,” warns Solomons, “it will hasten the end of our federal and state balance of power, and of the balance between the three branches of the federal government.”
Democrats are frantic, but their firepower is limited. With Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in exile, they lack a national leader. Governors who want to run for president are trying to fill the gap, vowing to redraw boundaries in their own states to elect more Democrats. “This is not a bluff. Democracy is on the line. We’ve got to go on offense. Fight fire with fire,” thundered California’s Gov. Gavin Newsom.
But in many Democrat-controlled states, like Illinois, the party has already created the maximum number of safe seats. In others, like California, state rules give independent commissions — not politicians — the power to draw boundaries. Federal courts have generally declined to block purely partisan or political districts.
There are good reasons why a president’s party usually loses off-year contests. A magnetic candidate at the top of the ticket, like Trump, pulls in marginal voters who don’t show up two years later. And all presidents make promises they cannot keep.
Look at Trump, who has failed to fulfill campaign pledges to bring down prices, protect Medicaid and release secret files allegedly documenting how a “deep state,” under the Democrats, was coddling sexual predators like Jeffrey Epstein. Gallup reports that his overall approval rating has dropped to 37%, with only 29% support among independents.
That’s why the president, who has often falsely accused his foes of rigging elections, has become the Rigger-In-Chief.
(Steven Roberts teaches politics and journalism at George Washington University. He can be contacted by email at stevecokie@gmail.com.)
